NEWSLETTER
The Monster Mile roars to life today as the NASCAR Cup Series makes its annual stop at Dover Motor Speedway. So before the green flag drops at the Concrete Jungle, let’s take a quick look at the post-qualifying Wurth 400 odds
NASCAR Dover Odds and Picks
Qualifying for the 2024 Wurth 400 was a nail-biter played out in cool temperatures that took a toll on tires. Kyle Busch, hungry for his first win of the season, emerged victorious, clinching the pole position with a blistering lap. This marked a significant milestone for Busch, securing his first pole of 2024 and breaking a tie for 22nd most poles in NASCAR history. However, the spotlight wasn’t all sunshine and roses with multiple drivers either spinning out or posting disappointing lap times resulting in poor starting positions.
NASCAR Dover Odds
Despite looking average at best in practice, and qualifying outside the top 20, Kyle Larson still sits as the Wurth 400 favorite. Following Larson are HMS teammate William Byron +600 and the JGR duo of Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin who are both +650 to win the race. Pole-sitter Kyle Busch saw a significant bump from his pre-practice Wurth 400 odds up to 12-1 to find victory lane for the first time this season. Take a look at the entire post-qualifying odds board from DraftKings Sportsbook below.
| Driver | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +400 |
| William Byron | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +650 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +650 |
| Ryan Blaney | +900 |
| Ross Chastain | +900 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1400 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 |
| Alex Bowman | +1400 |
| Ty Gibbs | +1600 |
| Joey Logano | +2200 |
| Christopher Bell | +2200 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +3000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +4000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +4000 |
| Josh Berry | +5000 |
| Noah Gragson | +6500 |
| Michael McDowell | +8000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +8000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +13000 |
| Carson Hocevar | +13000 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +15000 |
| Austin Dillon | +15000 |
| Austin Cindric | +15000 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +15000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +25000 |
| Corey Lajoie | +30000 |
| Corey Heim | +30000 |
| Zane Smith | +50000 |
| Harrison Burton | +50000 |
| Justin Haley | +60000 |
| Daniel Hemric | +80000 |
| Kaz Grala | +100000 |
Wurth 400 Odds – Post-Qualifying Bets
Finding bets I like this week was much easier than last week for the Geico 500 from Talladega where pretty much anything was possible. For the Monster Mile, I’m using track history, and racecraft from Las Vegas and Bristol this season to help make my picks. Here are a couple of my favorite Wurth 400 bets to make before we go green.
Daniel Suarez Top 10 +600 (BetRivers)
I’m getting a little risky here but Suarez’s overall career at Dover in top-tier equipment tells a story of a perennial top 10 contender. This includes five top 10 finishes in 11 career races at The Monster Mile with three other results of 11th or 14th. Yes, he’ll have to make his way around some of the “squirrels” and avoid getting his nuts busted but the price is long enough to keep risk low. I’m always a fan of Mi Amigo especially when I get a price like this at a track he’s been pretty darn good at in the past.
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Denny Hamlin To Win +650 (Caesars & DraftKings)
Denny is on a fu@$ing mission this year and it’s all about winning races from here on out until the playoffs. With two victories already in tow, the 11 team has a lot more leeway than many others and can “go for broke” as we saw in Texas two weeks ago. He’s won here before and unloaded with tremendous speed posting fantastic practice splits and starting 6th. It’s a short number but one that is warranted based on his current season and history here.
Drivers on Lead Lap at Finish Under 15.5 -115 (Caesars)
F it! I’m doing it again because the data says so. Of the last ten 400-lap races on the Monster Mile, only ONE has seen more than 15 cars finish on the lead lap (2021). And if you include the two 311-lap races at Dover in 2020, this prop has actually hit in TEN of the last twelve races. The first two times I played this market based on the data it was looking great until very late race cautions crushed both. So late in the final stage, make sure you’re praying for the race to, as a friend in the NASCAR betting community has coined, “STAY GREEN!”
