NEWSLETTER
The Chicago Bulls will host their first-ever Play-In Tournament game at the United Center on Wednesday night. Lucky for them, they ended up with one of the few opponents they have consistently outperformed in recent years – the Atlanta Hawks.
Chicago is 7-4 since the 2020-21 season against their Eastern Conference rival. A lot of what the Bulls do well tends to shine through against this Hawks’ team, but the postseason can also be a completely different animal. The Hawks are 3-0 since the Play-In’s inception, and they still have some serious star power on their roster with the backcourt tandem of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.
At any rate, I thought we’d take a closer look at three specific categories that could prove to be the deciding factor in this do-or-die game. Let’s start with an obvious one!
Bulls X-Factor Ayo Dosunmu
September 19, 1998, was the best day of Ayo Dosunmu’s life because his son was born.
In all seriousness, anyone who has watched the Bulls and Hawks matchup over the past couple of seasons knows that Dosunmu is Trae Young’s kryptonite. The Chicago Bulls’ third-year guard is 7-2 against Young so far in his career, as he’s defended him as well as almost anyone in the NBA.
Dosunmu’s combination of length and lateral quickness seems to be the recipe for keeping Young out of a rhythm. Last season, Young shot just 2-12 with 5 turnovers when guarded head-to-head by the 24-year-old over three games. The year before that during Dosunmu’s rookie campaign, Young was just 11-30. The Hawks’ superstar has gone a slightly better 4-9 over the three games this year, but Dosunmu has still made his presence felt in each matchup.
In fact, the Hawks now have Dosunmu’s offense to worry about. He averaged 21.0 points, 4.0 assists, and 4.0 rebounds on 55.5 percent shooting from the field against the Hawks in the regular season. This even included a then-career-high performance on Feb. 12, where he dropped 29 points on a 12-18 shooting display.
So why has Dosunmu flourished offensively against this squad? Well, he might very well be one of the most underrated transition threats in the game, and the Hawks happen to be the second-most points per 100 possessions in transition, per Cleaning the Glass. His half-court driving ability and overall decision-making have also taken a step in the right direction this season, which especially stands out against a Hawks team that allows the 6th-most points in the paint per game.
With all of this in mind, I don’t think it’s dramatic to say that Dosunmu’s availability on Wednesday night could be the difference between winning and losing. He’s missed the team’s last four regular-season games with a quad injury. The latest news out of practice is that Dosunmu is feeling better but is still waiting for the swelling to go down (h/t Will Gottlieb). Whether or not he’ll be good to go Wednesday night remains a major question mark.
Offensive Rebounding Battle
The Atlanta Hawks have been consistently good on the offensive glass. The team finished 5th in OREB% this regular season, and this has led to scoring roughly 16.0 second-chance points per game (4th in the NBA).
Clint Capela is the catalyst for this rebounding effort, with 4.6 of his 10.6 total rebounds per game coming on the offensive end. The Hawks’ big man leads the league in total OREBs this season with 335, which is 41 rebounds more than the next closest player in Domantas Sabonis. Capela also finished with that large of an advantage despite playing nine fewer games than the Kings’ big man.
The good news for the Bulls is that offensive rebounding is one of the few areas they’ve improved this year. Also, both Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu – who combined for another 4.0 OREBs per game – have already been ruled out for the Play-In matchup, as well.
The bad news for the Bulls is that Andre Drummond has been a significant part of their improvement in this department. Drummond has only received more playing time in Year 2 with the team, and rightfully so. The veteran center grabbed a total of 54 rebounds in his three games against the Hawks this season. He grabbed 21 of those boards on the offensive glass.
Drummond appears to be at real risk of missing at least the first Play-In Tournament game. He badly tweaked his ankle against the New York Knicks and missed the final three regular season games. The Bulls also held him out of practice on Tuesday, as he’s still reportedly dealing with swelling. If he has to miss another game, the Bulls will be left with zero traditional options behind Nikola Vucevic at center. Adama Sanogo – who could be considered the only other true big man on the roster – was on a two-way contract this season and is thus considered ineligible for the postseason.
If the Bulls want to avoid second-chance points becoming a serious problem, it’s going to take a big game by Vucevic and an extra effort from rotation guys like Torrey Craig, Javonte Green, and Alex Caruso.
Losing the Numbers Game
The Bulls’ one loss to the Hawks this season is pretty easy to explain. Atlanta drained 19 shots behind the arc compared to Chicago’s 7, vaulting them to a 113-101 victory.
To be sure, the Bulls had an off-shooting night from all over the floor on April 1. They were just 39.4 percent from the field, while the Hawks finished at 50.0 percent shooting. Still, even if the Bulls were shooting the rock a little more efficiently, the numbers game wasn’t working in their favor.
The Hawks took 40 threes to the Bulls’ 28 attempts. This has been an issue over the past several seasons, and we haven’t seen it improve much despite the front office seemingly making it their mission. The Bulls average just 32.1 attempts per game from long range, which ranks 26th in the NBA. The Hawks, on the other hand, shoot the 7th-most threes at 36.4.
The Hawks also finished ahead in this category in their losses, so it’s not impossible we see the Bulls still walk away victorious. However, in one of those games they were only a +3, and while they were a +18 in the other battle, the Bulls offset things with free throws and second-chance opportunities.
Indeed, if the Bulls don’t want the 3-point disparity to become a big problem, they’re going to have to control the pace of play and ramp up the physicality. And that could be a lot easier said than done with the availability of Ayo Dosunmu and Andre Drummond in question.
If Coby White or another random role player can get hot from downtown, however, the Bulls should be in a good position to advance.
