What the Play-In Loss Means for the Chicago Bulls’ Lottery Odds

As frustrating as it is to see the Chicago Bulls miss the playoffs for a second straight season, it was probably for the better. It doesn’t take a basketball savant to know this franchise is currently on a fast track to nowhere. They are built around an aging and expensive core that has gone an underwhelming 79-85 over the past two seasons.

Sure, injuries have been a part of the story during this era, but that can’t be used as an excuse. If anything, the case could be made that this roster’s inability to stay healthy is another reason to pursue change.

Do I think the front office will finally come to their sense and reshape this team? Eh, I’d be lying if I said yes. But I do think not having the excuse of making the playoffs twice in three years makes it more likely – as does owning a lottery pick!

The Chicago Bulls’ Lottery Odds

The Bulls were at risk of dropping several spots in the 2024 NBA Draft this evening. A win over the Heat would have meant securing the No. 15 pick in June, as opposed to their current spot in No. 11. They now at least have a 9.4 percent chance to move into the top 4 and a 2.0 percent chance to steal the No. 1 overall pick, per Tankathon. While I know those odds aren’t the sexiest, you never quite know how the lottery balls can fall (just ask Derrick Rose).

Arturas Karnisovas and Marc Everlsey of the Chicago Bulls
(Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)

I’m sure some would argue that there isn’t much of a difference between having the No. 11 and No. 15 pick in the draft, especially this year. The 2024 prospect pool is one of the weakest in quite some time. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t still a drop-off in talent as you near the mid-first-round.

Any front office would choose to have a higher pick over a lower pick. And I feel 100 percent confident saying that. Not to mention, the Bulls are especially in need of whatever high-upside talent they can get. While Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu give this organization something to build with moving forward, there are still major question marks around even younger guys like Patrick Williams, Dalen Terry, and Julian Phillips.

Indeed, this will now be the second-highest pick the front office has received since taking over the organization. The highest came in their first summer with the organization when they selected Williams No. 4 overall. While a top 5 pick isn’t quite a top 11, this is definitely the range where whoever the Bulls select will need/deserve legitimate playing time in his first season. With that being the case, I can’t help but wonder if the front office will be even more inclined to take the step back they should.

We’ll see.

written by

Elias Schuster is the Lead Chicago Bulls writer at Bleacher Nation. He started with BN full-time in 2019 immediately after graduating from the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign with a degree in Journalism (yes, he started with the Jim Boylen Era). Since joining, Elias has been the driving force behind Bulls and NBA content for both the site and social accounts. You can follow him on Twitter/X @Schuster_Elias.

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