NEWSLETTER
Well how about that? The Cubs *can* play a team that’s not the Brewers or Pirates, against whom they’ve played all of their first 12 games, losing seven and somehow winning five.
Also? The Cubs haven’t played a non-Central (AL/NL) team in the regular season since 2019. This is kinda weird.
The Cubs are headed back home to host the Braves for three games over the weekend, kicking off a nine-game home stand that will end with yet another three-game series against Milwaukee (because of course). The schedule doesn’t get much easier after that, with a four-game set against the Braves and a three-game series against the red-hot Reds (both on the road), followed by a three game set against the Dodgers at Wrigley Field. At least there should be some fun matchups coming up?
And while today does mark the return of Friday afternoon baseball at Wrigley Field, which I absolutely adore, remember the Cubs will play today’s game without David Ross, because … reasons?
David Ross and Ryan Tepera Suspended for That Pitch Behind Brandon Woodruff – https://t.co/3bTNoWzAYP pic.twitter.com/XRWEUQSHLR
— Bleacher Nation Cubs (@BleacherNation) April 15, 2021
We’re Going Streaking
Despite what feels like the worst start in MLB, the Chicago Cubs (5-7) actually have a better record than the Atlanta Braves (5-8) at the moment, although there’s no team struggling as badly offensively as our Cubbies.
Although the Braves have gotten off to a rough start overall, they have won 3 of their last 4 games (against the Phillies and Nationals) and remain a very talented squad. This won’t likely be an easy series, even if the Cubs were fully healthy, had their manager for all three games, and were not striking out about as badly as any team in the league.
Game Times and Broadcasts Info
• Friday, April 16th at 1:20 CT on MARQ, 670 The Score
• Saturday, April 17th at 1:20 CT on MARQ, 670 The Score
• Sunday, April 18th at 6:08 CT on MARQ, 670 The Score
Pitching Matchups
Game 1: Kyle Wright (R) vs. Zach Davies
Game 2: Huascar Ynoa (R) vs. Trevor Williams
Game 3: TBD vs. TBD
(Kyle Hendricks being scratched earlier this week because he was under the weather at the same time the Cubs had COVID cases on the coaching staff has thrown the rotation for a loop. It’s possible he starts on Friday if he is still negative and feeling good. Otherwise it would be Zach Davies.)
Chicago Cubs
• C – Willson Contreras
• 1B – Anthony Rizzo
• 2B – David Bote
• 3B – Kris Bryant
• SS – Javy Baez
• LF – Joc Pederson
• CF – Ian Happ
• RF – Jason Heyward
Unavailable: Jonathan Holder, Tyson Miller, Rowan Wick, Matt Duffy, Brandon Workman, Dan Winkler
Atlanta Braves
• C – Travis D’Arnaud
• 1B – Freddie Freeman
• 2B – Ozzie Albies
• 3B – Austin Riley
• SS – Dansby Swanson
• LF – Marcell Ozuna
• CF – Ender Inciarte
• RF – Ronald Acuña Jr.
Unavailable: Max Fried, Mike Soroka, Chris Martin, Cristian Pache
By the Numbers:
Run Differential:
Cubs: -20 (28th)
Braves: -6 (18th)
Runs Scored Per Game:
Cubs: 2.67 (30th)
Braves: 4.33 (16th)
Runs Allowed Per Game:
Cubs: 4.33 (13th)
Braves: 4.83 (20th)
Keep An Eye Out For …
Still looking for hits. I had a whole section planned out on the fact that the Cubs still just haven’t gotten their hits to fall, but I think Brett’s tweet from yesterday does a better job illustrating the depths of these struggles more than anything else:
With 59 hits, the Cubs have fewer hits than the
Reds
Red Sox
Dodgers
Astros
White Sox
Angels
Twins
and Cardinals… have runs.
— Bleacher Nation Cubs (@BleacherNation) April 15, 2021
Is Willson getting HOT or getting HIT? In isolation, it wouldn’t be difficult to believe that Willson Contreras has a 130 wRC+. He’s a fantastic, arguably underrated hitter who can do a lot better than even that. However, it’s fair to wonder how much of that 30% better-than-league-average production is built on his .390 OBP, which is, itself, built on a unsustainable rate of HBPs (4 so far through just 12 games). Yes, he gets hit a lot, but he gets hit a lot by the Brewers, specifically, and the Cubs won’t play them as often going forward as they have so far.
So if that rate comes down, might his OBP come down and his .226 batting average and .419 SLG make everything look a lot worse? Eh. Maybe. There’s certainly truth there, but Contreras is also walking at a 12.2% rate and has the best hard hit rate of his career so far. On the flip side, he’s striking out a ton and hitting WAY too many ground balls. With all that said, his actual .365 wOBA isn’t too much better than his expected wOBA of .356. And in terms of the contact and base-running-only expected wOBA (.410) he should be a monster. My bet is that he’s one of the few Cubs doing just fine and will continue to produce even as the HBPs come down.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is on fire. Mike Trout has 1.1 WAR so far this season. Ronald Acuña Jr. has 1.4. The 23-year-old is slashing an utterly absurd .447/.500/1.000 (285 wRC+), with six homers already, plus an 11.1% walk rate and 14.8% strikeout rate. That’s just about as good as you *can* hit. Just walk him. Seriously. Don’t even bother. Give him the Bryce Harper treatment during that 2015 season. Make *anyone* else in that lineup beat you, because only Freddie Freeman (111 wRC+) is an above average hitter at the moment.
