Okay, Let’s Play the Lineup Game with the 2023 Chicago Cubs

Even though a recent report suggested the Cubs “aren’t done yet” with potential additions to the 2023 roster, the vast majority of their work is complete. From here, maybe they’ll add a reliever, maybe they get another bat for the bench. But beyond that, come Opening Day, what you see is what you’ll get. The upshot is that we can start tinkering with the 2023 Chicago Cubs lineup!

After all, memorializing a preferred batting order on the internet is a long-standing Cubs fan tradition. As is getting mad when someone else has even a subtly different idea about your lineup … even when we all know most data suggests only modest potential run-scoring increases with any grouping of the same nine players.

I’ll add that, for the first time in a few years, the Cubs actually have pretty clear starters at most positions. That should help David Ross create some stability and consistency. He seems to value that a little bit more than his predecessor, Joe Maddon, who was mixing and matching in more significant ways more often.

Before we get started, here’s what I’m thinking on the Matt Mervis issue: let’s create FOUR lineups. One versus lefties, one versus righties, one for before Matt Mervis (BMM), and one for after Matt Mervis (AMM). Maybe he’ll be here on Opening Day, but I’m starting to think it’ll actually be like a month into the season.

Cubs Lineup vs. RHP (BMM)

1. Ian Happ, LF (Switch)
2. Seiya Suzuki, RF (Righty)
3. Nico Hoerner, 2B (Righty)
4. Dansy Swanson, SS (Righty)
5. Trey Mancini, DH (Righty)
6. Chris Morel, 3B (Righty)
7. Eric Hosmer, 1B (Lefty)
8. Tucker Barnhart, C (Switch)
9. Cody Bellinger, CF (Lefty)

Lineup Notes:

I’m leading off with Ian Happ. The Cubs left fielder and 2022 All-Star completely reinvented himself last season, cutting WAY down on his strikeouts while getting on base at an above-average clip. He also sees plenty of pitches and has become a more complete switch-hitter, with significant strides from the right-side of the plate in 2022.

I think Seiya Suzuki will be the Cubs best hitter this season, so he gets the best spot in the lineup. Pretty straight forward.

Spots 2-6 are difficult for the Cubs in a pre-Matt Mervis world, because they could REALLY use a high-quality left-handed bat to break up all the righties. Unfortunately, they don’t have that guy yet. Maybe it’ll be Matt Mervis (fair bet). Maybe it’ll be Cody Bellinger (not a great bet, but fingers crossed!), but for now, I’m just making sure the best hitters get the most PAs.

I’m certainly hoping Chris Morel can turn into something special, but I don’t know for sure what he is yet. I’d like to see him getting a lot of early PAs against righties instead of Patrick Wisdom, who’s more of a known quantity (and who should be getting 100% of the starts against lefties). Also, for what it’s worth, Morel was MUCH better against righties (119 wRC+) than lefties (81 wRC+) last season.

Hosmer and Barnhart (or Yan Gomes) in the “hide us” spots.

Cody Bellinger isn’t batting ninth because I think he’s going to be bad. I have him there as the “second” leadoff man, of sorts. I always liked that concept. Good, low-pressure place for him to start.

vs. LHP (BMM)

1. Nico Hoerner, 2B (Righty)
2. Seiya Suzuki, RF (Righty)
3. Patrick Wisdom, 3B (Righty)
4. Dansby Swanson, SS (Righty)
5. Ian Happ, LF (Switch)
6. Trey Mancini, 1B (Righty)
7. Nelson Velázquez, CF (Righty)
8. Yan Gomes, C (Righty)
9. Nick Madrigal, DH

Lineup Notes:

Even though Ian Happ has improved immensely as a righty batter, I don’t think he should take the majority of the team’s at-bats against left-handed pitching.

Instead, I’m over-loading the top with the Cubs traditional righties, including Nico Hoerner leading off, Suzuki still batting second, and Patrick Wisdom batting third.

Speaking of which, don’t sleep on Wisdom’s ability vs. lefties: 147 wRC+ last season, 126 wRC+ for his career. He needs to start against ALL left-handed pitchers and bat near the top of the lineup.

The only issue here is that I can see Wisdom and Swanson with some rally-killing strikeouts batting back-to-back. But this is who the Cubs have at their disposal.

Velázquez isn’t likely a mainstay for the starting lineup long-term, not with Brennen Davis, Alexander Canario, and eventually Pete Crow-Armstrong on the way. But for now, I’d like to see if he can continue his 112 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching from last season and carve out a bigger role for himself. Also, note that Cody Bellinger had a 63 wRC+ against lefties last season.

As for Gomes/Barnhart, it should never be a strict lefty/righty platoon behind the plate, but there is this:

For as much as offense is NOT their strategy at the position, the Cubs may have a pretty natural lefty/righty catching platoon on their hands.

vs. LHP (Career): Gomes

Barnhart: 54 wRC+
Gomes: 117 wRC+

vs. RHP (Career): Barnhart

Barnhart: 86 wRC+
Gomes: 78 wRC+— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) January 27, 2023

And Madrigal? It doesn’t get lower pressure than batting ninth against only lefties. Let’s see if you can do anything there and then we can talk about increasing exposure.

Cubs Lineup vs. RHP (AMM)

1. Ian Happ, LF (Switch)
2. Seiya Suzuki, RF (Righty)
3. Matt Mervis, 1B (Lefty)
4. Dansy Swanson, SS (Righty)
5. Nico Hoerner, 2B (Righty)
6. Trey Mancini, DH (Righty)
7. Chris Morel, 3B (Righty)
8. Tucker Barnhart, C (Switch)
9. Cody Bellinger, CF (Lefty)

Lineup Notes:

Same top-two against right-handed pitching, these guys need to get the majority of the Cubs at-bats all season.

BUT NOW MATT MERVIS IS HERE! And frankly, I don’t think the Cubs need to hide him; let’s see what he can do with a little baptism-by-fire. At least, against most righties. Perhaps especially righties without exceptional fastballs. It’s also very nice to have another lefty in here to break up all the righties. And while “lineup protection” is mostly a myth in modern times, I don’t think it hurts to have Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner hitting behind him. Power and contact.

Trey Mancini is split neutral and I like him better than Eric Hosmer, even against righties, when Matt Mervis is in the game. Sorry if this offends.

Morel, Barnhart, Bellinger. Same notes as above: Give Morel a shot, Wisdom isn’t good against righties, Barnhart is better than Gomes against righties (but no strict platoon for catchers), and a soft-landing for Bellinger.

Cubs Lineup vs. LHP (AMM)

1. Nico Hoerner, 2B (Righty)
2. Seiya Suzuki, RF (Righty)
3. Patrick Wisdom, 3B (Righty)
4. Dansby Swanson, SS (Righty)
5. Ian Happ, LF (Switch)
6. Trey Mancini, 1B (Righty)
7. Nelson Velázquez, CF (Righty)
8. Yan Gomes, C (Righty)
9. Matt Mervis, DH (LHP)

Lineup Notes:

This lineup looks pretty similar to the one we have above without Matt Mervis, but there are a few notable changes.

For one, I think you start off by introducing Mervis to some big league lefties to help him continue to develop. You can’t just cut him off completely. Ian Happ talk about how the extra exposure against lefties helped him improve as a right-handed hitter. It’s practice. Plain and simple. The Cubs can still afford to devote some time for development this season.

I do think you let him DH on these days, however, so that his one and only focus is batting vs. LHP.

That means Trey Mancini at first base and Eric Hosmer on the bench.

That also means there’s no obviously place to start Nick Madrigal after Mervis arrives, but … that’s kind of already where we are. And remember, Madrigal has Minor League options remaining … just saying.

And that’s it! The Cubs lineup is pretty CLEARLY missing some thump, particularly from the left-side of the plate, but this is who we have to work with right now. Hopefully, Mervis and/or Bellinger can fill in some of those gaps. And eventually, the righty, Brennen Davis, will also lengthen the group quite a bit.

So how would you set up the 2023 Chicago Cubs lineups?