Checking All the Boxes, Busch’s Good Decisions, Hope’s Helium (for L.A.), Lucky Brewers, and Other Cubs Bullets

I, for one, am incredibly thankful for the wonderful day of performances from top prospects in the Cubs minor league system yesterday. It’s a perfect palette cleanser on this off-day following a series we all want to forget.

  • But, hey, at least we’re checking all the boxes early, right? Through just their first 12 games of the season, the Chicago Cubs have a blown save, a major/impactful injury, a couple of blow-out wins, a couple of blow-out loses, two series wins, two series loses, a little league home run, a top prospect promotion, and that historically bad collapse against the Padres on Monday. All we need is a near-no-hitter, a fake rally, a late-game comeback and a walk-off. Am I missing anything?
  • Later today, we’ll dive into the on-going conversations for Kyle Hendricks (boo) and the Christopher Morel (hooray!), but how about Michael Busch? The guys just keeps on doing his thing. With another homer and two walks, Busch is up to .270/.364/.486 (132 wRC+), and his command of the strikezone and overall patience is exactly as advertised (13.6% walk rate). As of today, his 23.5% O-swing rate is among the top-70 in MLB (league average is 27.5%). But of all the hitters ahead of him on that list, only 16 have a higher in-zone swing rate (and two of them are his teammates!). In other words, Busch has been making excellent swing decisions relative to the rest of the league.
  • And it’s probably a good thing we’re happy with Busch, because Zyhir Hope (the second, lesser piece in that trade) is off to a really good start during his first taste of A-Ball. Through just 24 plate appearances, Hope has three walks, a single, three doubles, three homers, two stolen bases, a HBP, and just four strikeouts. His slash line: .350/.458/.950 for a 19-year-old outfielder in A-ball. Not bad. Baseball America recently ranked him as one of their “helium picks,” which, well, good for him and the Dodgers. I guess:
  • The Scoop: The Dodgers added Hope and Jackson Ferris in the January trade that shipped Michael Busch to the Cubs. Chicago had drafted Hope out of high school in the 11th round last year and paid him $400,000, the equivalent of fifth-round money. He has outstanding speed and quick hands that helped him crush three early home runs in California League play, including one with a 113 mph exit velocity. The power is real. If Hope hits, he could take off as a prospect. (ME)

  • If you’re wondering, the center piece of that trade was Jackson Ferris, who’s tossed just three innings so far in High-A: 3.0 IP, 3H, 3BB, 4K. Nothing much to dissect there.
  • A really interesting little study at FanGraphs, dissecting the unexpected DROP in stolen base attempts *and* stolen base success rate this season. Last year, with the new rule changes directed at increasing stolen bases, the attempts and success rate went up. And the thinking was that with another year of experience, that trend would continue this season. But in reality, but the overall attempts and success rate is down this year, which is pretty wild. There’s no certain answer yet, but rather a handful of maybe-this and maybe-that. For example, a slight increase in pick-off throws (the effects of which might actually work in both directions) and an even smaller decrease in on-base percentage. But the most interesting angle to me is the new crop of catchers behind the plate with better pop times. Now, to be clear, the rate is still up relative to pre-2023 levels (before the rule changes), but it’s definitely down relative to last year. I’m curious to see if that changes.
  • On a related note, Brett looked into the Cubs unique early-season position of being one of the best-rated baserunning teams in MLB, despite having stolen just two bases so far.
  • Circling back to last-night’s game, I don’t quite know what to make of Daniel Palencia yet this season. I like the velocity and the overall pitch-mix. But he wasn’t missing quite enough bats in the zone yesterday and hasn’t quite had good enough command in either of his appearances (5.0 IP total). The pieces are all clearly there, though, and I certainly prefer Palencia’s 97-98 MPH fastball (and 86.8 MPH average exit velocity) to Cuas 92-93 MPH fastball (… and 94.6 MPH average exit velocity) this season.
  • Just a reminder that the Brewers are lucky-as-hell and so annoying for this. It kind of reminds me of Christian Yelich absolutely BLOWING UP after his trade to the Brewers.
  • In case you missed it, the Shohei Ohtani, Ippei Mizuhara scandal is buttoning up nicely, with the federal authorities getting involved.
  • written by

    Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL. In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami

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