NEWSLETTER
Even if there weren’t concerns about his velocity-drop coming into the season, anybody would’ve projected regression for Hector Neris in 2024.
The Cubs primary set-up man (and big offseason free agent relief signing) had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros in 2023, largely on the strength of an unsustainably beneficial .219 BABIP and 90.5% strand-rate. But he had been SO good last year – and for many years prior – that the Cubs were willing to bet $9M that he’d still be valuable even with regression baked in. And, hey, he still might! But so far, it has gone really, really poorly.
Last night, Hector Neris entered the game in the bottom of the 8th inning with a one-run lead, familiarity territory for a setup man. He was facing the bottom part of the Mariners lineup, which also happens to be the worst offense in MLB against right-handed pitching this season. And what did he do?
Throw a five-pitch walks to the first two batters, struck out the third, and then walked the bases loaded on another 5-pitch, uncompetitive walk.
The Mariners weren’t biting and Neris wasn’t exactly nibbling. He was missing badly with all of his pitchers. And if it wasn’t for a well-executed (and difficult) double-play from Dansby Swanson, the Cubs would have lost their lead right then and there. And who knows what happens after that.
So what’s going on with him?
Fastball Velocity
Well, for one, his fastball velocity has taken a further dip this season. What was once a 94+ MPH four-seamer dropped to 93.1 MPH last year and is down to 92.7 MPH this season. His sinker is still in line with (the depressed velocity) last season, but down from the eight seasons prior. And maybe that and some wildness is enough to neuter the effectiveness of his signature splitter (-0.7 pitch value so far this season).
Command
But arguably even more concerning is his command. Neris has already walked six batters through 5.0 innings (24% walk rate), which is completely untenable for any pitcher, let-alone a high-leverage set-up man.
Digging in a bit, I can see that Neris is falling behind batters quickly (32.0% first-pitch strike compared to 57.3% career average), and is simply not living in the zone enough (36.2% vs 42.3% career average). And again, it’s possible this is all related, as batters are offering at his splitter less frequently (perhaps because they can see it better without worrying about his velocity), but I can also see that the pitch is dropping three inches more than normal, a trend that has increased over the years to its max this season.
The horizontal release point of that pitch is all out of whack too. For all we know that’s on purpose. But if it is, it isn’t working. Circling back to a general plate discipline stat: Batters are offering at just 23.9% of pitches out of the zone against Neris, but his career average is 35%. That’s a huge difference. And their overall swing rate is WAYYYY down too. And when they do offer, he’s missing fewer bats than ever.
So basically, they’re daring him to throw strikes, and he just can’t. And when he does and they do swing, they’re making more contact than before.
Contact Quality
And as if all of that wasn’t enough, Neris has allowed an average exit velocity of 91.0 MPH this season (career 88.3) and a 61.5% hard-hit rate (career 35.8%). He’s been fortunate to get a lot of groundballs (and for a lot of those groundballs to find gloves). But it’s not difficult to imagine why his already horrible 5.40 ERA is actually carrying a 6.89 expected ERA from Statcast.
So What Do the Cubs Do?
Well, I’m not sure there’s much they CAN do right now. With Julian Merryweather out, Hayden Wesneski in Iowa, while Javier Assad and Ben Brown are in the rotation, the circle of trust in the bullpen is razor thin at the moment. It’s basically … Mark Leiter Jr. (who needs to take some big spots against lefties) and Adbert Alzolay (who’s the closer).
So unless they’re willing to trust Luke Little with more high-leverage spots against lefties (freeing up Leiter Jr.) or trust Daniel Palencia or Keegan Thompson with big spots (not likely right now), it’s kind of Neris or bust.
Eventually, Jameson Taillon and Justin Steele will be back, which should help by way of Assad and Brown, but until then, the Cubs don’t have much of a choice but to hope Neris figures it out. And that’s not great news, because it hasn’t just been bad results so far, he’s looked lost and has poor underlying metrics. This is why the say you can never have too much pitching, I guess.
