NEWSLETTER
As he’s done nine times before, Cade Horton dominated in his latest outing for the Tennessee Smokies. It took him just 47 pitches to cruise through 4.0 innings of work and carve up the Rays’ Double-A squad.
Horton has now made 10 total starts at the Double-A level between last season, the playoffs last year, and now two starts this year. He has dominated in those 10 starts to such a degree that it’s impossible to see what else he has to do at the level (ERA barely over one, sub-one WHIP, 30-ish% K rate, 7-ish% BB rate, etc., etc.).
So the obvious question: why is Horton still there? Heck, why did he even begin there? Why would the Cubs want him using up 2024 innings at Double-A?
Well, I don’t actually have a sure-fire answer. There obviously *is* an answer, but I’m just not quite 100% on what it is. The Cubs obviously know a lot more about Horton’s needs, their plans, and various expectations than I do.
There could always be developmental things under the hood that he’s working on, and the Cubs prefer it there rather than Triple-A. We know he’s still aiming to improve the changeup and curveball (the fastball and the slider are already big league pitches), and maybe there are just some super specific things the Cubs want to see. That’s generally what it is when a player isn’t being promoted despite great numbers. And Horton did make 11 starts at High-A before getting the bump to Double-A, despite similar dominance.
But I could offer up two other explanations, and maybe all of these things are working together as the explanation.
First, it could be that the Cubs believe Horton wouldn’t be challenged at Triple-A either, so they prefer to keep him in the nicer weather, while giving those Triple-A innings to other guys for various reasons. If the quality of the hitter doesn’t matter for Horton’s development right now (i.e., you’re not really looking at results anyway), then you could argue it doesn’t really matter whether he’s at Double-A or Triple-A.
Second, it could be that the Cubs are very confident that Horton is going to contribute in the big leagues this year. If so, they’d have incentives to keep Horton’s outings right now as low-stress as possible (save those bullets), and to keep Horton away from the Statcast data at Triple-A for a longer (why provide a huge dataset to other teams for deep dive analysis by the advance scouting departments?). It’s not THAT uncommon for tip-top pitching prospects to jump straight from Double-A to MLB.
We do have to keep in mind that Horton is still just 22, and barely beginning his second pro season. It’s not like he hasn’t already moved very quickly. I’m not COMPLAINING that he isn’t at Triple-A. I’m just curious as to the rationale.
It could well be that, as we get into the warmer spring months, Horton will head on up to Triple-A, and make some more short starts there until June/July, and that’s when the Cubs might decide to give him some big league run (depending on a number of obvious factors at the big league level).
I should mention the flip-side explanation, which seems unlikely to me, but is plausible: it could be that the Cubs aren’t expecting Cade Horton to reach the big leagues this year, and thus they really want to reserve Triple-A starts right now for keeping their big league depth options stretched out and ready to go. If that’s the case, then you probably wouldn’t see Horton at Triple-A until the summer months. Then, if needs dictate – and only if needs dictate – you could see Horton pressed into big league service.
But if the Cubs are hoping to see Horton struggle at Double-A before he adjusts and then gets the promotion to Triple-A, I’m not so sure that’s going to happen.
