NEWSLETTER
Justin Steele, arguably the single most irreplaceable player on the Chicago Cubs 2024 roster, went down with a hamstring injury just 4.2 innings into his Opening Day start against the Rangers on March 28. In his place, the Cubs sixth and seventh starters, Javier Assad and Ben Brown, have been doing a fantastic job, but Justin Steele is a different animal with a much higher ceiling and a bigger role to play this season.
And that’s why I was so excited to see our first really notable (and positive) update to his progress and timeline.
Justin Steele Injury Update
According to Tony Andracki (Marquee), Justin Steele will throw a live bullpen session THIS SUNDAY. And if that goes well (usually, you don’t know for sure until the next day), he’ll begin his rehab assignment shortly after that.
And while I couldn’t possibly state with confidence that Steele would have as short of a rehab assignment as Jameson Taillon (who made just two starts before coming back up), I can say that a few factors are working in his favor.
(1) For one, Steele’s injury was not an arm injury, and he has reportedly been throwing and maintaining his arm strength (cautiously/as best as he can) in the meantime.
(2) For another, Steele was able to ramp up fully in spring training this season before he went down, so he’s not starting from square one. The Cubs made a point to explain the importance there in discussing the difference between Seiya Suzuki’s oblique injury last year (pre-ramp-up) and the one this year (post-ramp-up). I’m just applying the same logic here.
(3) And lastly, the Cubs are likely anxious to get him back. Like I said, Javier Assad and Ben Brown have been filling in admirably, but Steele immediately raises the ceiling of this rotation — and in effect, the floor, by improving the starting depth and/or arms in the bullpen. Plus, we still have no idea where things are heading with Kyle Hendricks, so another starter coming back as soon as possible would be good. In other words, the Cubs are going to want him back as soon as he’s physically able.
So let’s game the timeline out a little bit: If Justin Steele throws a bullpen on Sunday and it goes well, maybe he flies out to a minor league affiliate (South Bend, Tennessee or Iowa, depending on travel and weather) for a start near the end of next week. Let’s be guarded and call it Thursday, April 25. If that start goes well, he might make another start on Tuesday, April 30.
And that would, in effect, set him up to return for a series finale against the Brewers at Wrigley Field on May 5 (again, that’s if he also needs only two minor league rehab starts, which is no guarantee). In other words, that’s probably your most optimistic timeline. And, indeed, it lines up with the organization’s initial roadmap of a return “sometime in May.”
In any case, I can’t wait to get Justin Steele back. The Cubs (11-7) have been winning without him, but it’s no fun playing a man down.
