NEWSLETTER
We already dove deep into Shota Imanaga’s latest impressive start against the Marlins yesterday. And there’s been no shortage of love for Michael Busch this season either. But I do want to take this time to illustrate just how good they have been relative to the other rookies in the National League.
Especially because, as of right now, they have to be considered two of the front-runners for National League Rookie of the Year honors. In fact, Draftkings currently has Michael Busch (+400) as THE favorite, followed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+450), and then Shota Imanaga (+500).
And while we’re noting it, FanDuel and BetMGM each has Yamamoto (+450) and Busch (+450) tied, with Shota Imanaga (+600) in fourth.
But how do they actually stack up as of right now? Let’s take a look.
2024 NL Rookie of the Year Race
Michael Busch
Let’s start with Michael Busch, who is currently slashing an impressive .309/.385/.618 (172 wRC+). Compared to the entire league, that’s the 12th best offensive production in baseball here in the early-going. In the National League, alone, that slash line ranks 6th. And among all rookies in the NL, it’s tops.
NL Rookie wRC+ Leaderboard
- Michael Busch (CHC): 172 wRC+ (78 PAs)
- Alika Williams (PIT): 162 wRC+ (27 PAs)
- Blaze Alexander (ARI): 160 wRC+ (58 PAs)
- Joey Ortiz (MIL): 138 wRC+ (44 PAs)
- Masyn Win (STL): 127 wRC+ (71 PAs)
- Jackson Merill (SDP): 124 wRC+ (86 PAs)
- Tyler Fitzgerald (SFG): 122 wRC+ (24 PAs)
- Ivan Herrera (STL): 108 wRC+ (52 PAs)
- Jung Hoo Lee (SFG): 107 wRC+ (95 PAs)
- 10 Jackson Chourio (MIL): 91 wRC+ (78 PAs)
Busch doesn’t play a premium position like many of the other players listed above, but his offensive production – in the amount of PAs he’s already had – is well above the field. It’s why he leads the pack in WAR too (0.8). But yeah, offensively, none of these guys are particularly close, and there are other stats to include.
For example, Busch is leading or among the top three in … homers (6, 1st), RBI (15, 1st), runs (11, 3rd), walk rate (11.5%, 2nd), and ISO (.309, 1st).
All that and the fact that he was involved in a high-profile trade over the offseason, from the Dodgers to the Cubs, was a recent top-50 prospect, and is playing on a competitive team sure make him seem like an obvious contender for 2024 NL Rookie of the Year.
But he’s not alone. And you can’t discount all the rookie pitchers, either.
Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga nearly made it through four starts before allowing his first earned run of the season, and is currently sporting a 0.84 ERA through 21.1 innings pitched. Among all pitchers with at least 20 IP this season, his ERA ranks first. No surprises there. It also leads the NL and all rookies in MLB.
Here’s how he ranks among all National League rookies with at least 10.0 IP …
But if you filter that up to at least 20.0 IP, he moves into second (K/BB) or first (AVG, WHIP, barrel%) for every category but innings.
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The Field
But make no mistake, this is a very crowded year for NL Rookie of the Year candidates. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jackson Chourio, Jackson Merrill, Jared Jones, Jung Hoo Lee, Gavin Stone, Paul Skenes, Masyn Winn, and others are going to be tough competition. And even if some of those guys have had slow starts, you wouldn’t be wise to bet against them.
As for the Cubs, specifically, you should actually have a rooting interest here.
Although we’d obviously be thrilled if either guy won (and, hey, don’t sleep on Ben Brown!), Michael Busch is actually the more impactful route for the Cubs because he’s eligible for the new Prospect Promotion Incentive.
In short, because he appeared on multiple top-100 prospect ranking lists this offseason and was carried on the Cubs opening day roster, the Cubs can net a bonus pick after the first round if Busch wins Rookie of the Year or finishes among the top-3 in MVP voting (Shota Imanaga is not eligible).
That’s pretty darn valuable, especially for a team who’s obviously hoping to draft late in the first round in 2025 after a successful 2024 season. So here’s to a big season for both of them, but especially Michael Busch. The Cubs gave up a lot to get him, but so far, he’s been even better than we could’ve possible hoped. The Cubs will be happy to have him through 2029 no matter what, but if he can keep this up for five more months, he might just net the Cubs another good prospect, too, reducing the effective price of that trade in the process!
