NEWSLETTER
That was a bummer of a series. The Cubs wound up splitting their weekend series at Wrigley Field, which isn’t an awful outcome. But playing home against those Marlins, you definitely hope for at least three of four. Unfortunately, after Adbert Alzolay blew a save on Saturday, Kyle Hendricks couldn’t get the job done on Sunday.
His final line: 4.0 IP, 6H, 4ER, 0BB, 5Ks (and one maaaaaaaasive home run).
Craig Counsell on Kyle Hendricks
“There were some positive signs,” said Cubs manager Craig Counsell about Kyle Hendricks. “Some good steps. Some positive steps. Some good innings, for sure. Some took-control-of-the-inning type innings. But we need better results, frankly.”
Among the good signs to which Counsell is likely referring? The continued weak contact generated off Hendricks, whose 86.3 MPH average exit velocity (13th best in MLB) and 31.7 hard% (21st in MLB) are both still among the best in baseball. It’s a little baffling, frankly. If you were to tell me just those numbers plus the facts that Hendricks is healthy and throwing as hard as ever, I’d have guessed he’d be doing just fine, if not obviously well.
But if there was ever evidence of why you need to actually watch these games, this is it. Hendricks is simply not succeeding. Anyone can see that. It’s not a matter of luck or sequencing or anything like that. And while there were some good innings mixed in yesterday — no doubt about it — the overall product is unplayable.
Too Many Balls in Play
To get specific in just one area, Kyle Hendricks is allowing way too many balls in play.
Unless you’re setting statcast records, a 15.1% strikeout rate is not going to play at the big league level (it would have been the lowest in MLB last season). And while a 6.6% walk rate is actually pretty good, it’s higher than Hendricks’ career average.
And then there’s the biggest red flag: plate discipline.
Opposing batters are offering at pitches in the zone way more than they ever have against Kyle Hendricks (67% this season vs 59.7% for his career) and they’re making contact on those pitches way more than ever, too (91.4% vs 86.0%). That’s the sixth highest zone-contact rate in baseball. That’s just not sustainable.
And while I also don’t think the 33.3% HR/FB ratio, .392 BABIP, and 50.3% strand rate are sustainable, even despite how Hendricks is pitching, I really don’t know if it’ll be enough.
For his part, Kyle Hendricks is saying all the right things about being pulled, like he always does.
“Of course I want to go as deep in the game as possible,” Hendricks said. “But when you’re not getting the results and giving up runs — that’s a game we had to get. So no, nothing on that decision there. I’ve got to be better and prove it to get those opportunities.”
Where do the Cubs Go from Here?
With Jameson Taillon back, and an off-day today, the Cubs rotation lines up like this the rest of the week:
So the Cubs have almost a full week to figure out what comes next. And until we hear otherwise, I think we have to expect him to make that start. However, Ben Brown is still up here with the big league team. And while he may be used in relief throughout the week out of necessity, perhaps he could be prepared to (aggressively) piggyback off Hendricks in that start. He’s obviously still stretched out. It might just depend on how the week goes.
I know there’ll be calls to have Brown replace Hendricks in the rotation outright, but I just don’t get the sense that’s happening (yet). I don’t think that conversation actually goes down until Justin Steele returns some time in May and that’ll be more about keeping Assad in the rotation over Hendricks, not Brown.
Either way, the clock is ticking on Kyle Hendricks. If he doesn’t turn his results around quickly and dramatically, there will be a change.
