NEWSLETTER
The Chicago Cubs starting rotation has a 3.13 ERA on the season, fourth best in MLB (and that’s almost entirely without Justin Steele). The Chicago Cubs, bullpen, by contrast, has a 4.57 ERA on the season, tied for 8th worst in MLB. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know, but I am explaining why we’re talking about relief trade targets in early MAY.
The Cubs simply cannot afford to wait until the end of July to add a reliever. There’s way too much ground to cover before then.
And, hey, with the Marlins having already started their sell-off (trading Luis Arraez to the Padres), we’re clearly not TOO early to start thinking about this stuff. In fact, the Cubs and Marlins are reportedly talking about a deal for a reliever as we speak. I also happen to know that the Cubs have begun kicking the tires on relievers around baseball, just to get a preliminary sense of the asking prices (which have so far been exorbitantly high). You don’t even want to know.
But how do you identify who could be a Cubs target out of the sea of available relievers? It’s easy enough to look at the best relievers in baseball and just hope the Cubs pull off a deal, but those are the guys that are usually held until the deadline to maximize the return. So for anything sooner, sometimes, you need to get creative.
And you need to check at least some of these boxes:
And boy do I have the guy for you! Meet Luis Garcia of the Los Angeles Angels. He checks all of the boxes (and then some).
Garcia is a 37-year-old righty throwing on an expiring contract for the last-place Angels, and currently boasts a 5.54 ERA!
So … why the hell do I want the Cubs to trade for him? Well for one, even before we get into all the stuff I actually LIKE about Garcia, just note that the ERA is a giant mirage. I absolutely know you can’t just throw away a guy’s worst outings and keep the rest – everything counts – but this is pretty extreme. You can’t just ignore context, either.
His very first appearance of the season, Garcia allowed the Orioles to score 3 earned runs before he recorded an out. That’s an ERA killer this early in the year. And three games ago, he allowed four earned runs to score on just 2 outs. Also an ERA killer. In his other 12 appearances this season, Garcia has allowed ONLY one earned run. This is really just two bad outings and 12 superb outings.
Again, it all still counts. You can’t just cherry pick like that. But at the same time, using ERA to evaluate a reliever (especially this early in the season) is just not useful. But this is about way more than me throwing away a couple of bad games and pointing to a shinier ERA.
Consider the following, instead …
These are just some of the reasons why Garcia’s 2.54 FIP and 2.43 xERA are all miles better than his actual ERA.
In short, we’re talking about a guy that throws strikes, doesn’t walk batters, gets groundballs, generates weak contact, throws hard, and has a good out-pitch. All of that makes him a guy you WANT.
On the flip side, he’s older, he’s a rental, his stats don’t look great on the surface, and he’s on a bad team that should be willing to sell sooner than later. All of that makes him a guy that should be AVAILABLE.
I do not – by any means – think Garcia is the answer to the Cubs deep bullpen issues. They need a bonafide closer more than anything else and they don’t have that. But it’s not like they have seven great relievers and just one closer problem. They need talent from outside the org and they need it soon. And I think Luis Garcia is a guy who can fit that mold.
Random note: I couldn’t figure out where to mention this, but didn’t want it to go unsaid: One big issue Garcia faces is left-handed batters. They are killing him this season and that’s been true for his career, as well. Something to keep in mind given batter-minimums.
