NEWSLETTER
It took me only five clicks of the “simulate lottery” button on Tankathon to get the Cubs the top overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. And that wasn’t because of some crazy-improbable roll of the dice. As of today, the Chicago Cubs (34-39) have the third worst record in the National League and the sixth worst record overall. Hell, they’re only a half-game up from having the fourth worst record in baseball.
It wasn’t supposed to be this way.
And I don’t actually mean that in a broader, universal, sense-of-justice sort of way (though that conversation has to happen, too). I just mean the team has fallen precipitously from their projections just a couple months ago.
FanGraphs Projections and Playoff Odds
Before the season began, FanGraphs projected the Cubs to win 82 games. According to their models, then, Chicago had a 26.7% chance at winning the division and a 41.3% chance to make the playoffs.
On April 26, when the Cubs were a season-high 8.0 games over .500, FanGraphs updated their model to project 87 wins, a 40.6% chance at the division and a 64.5% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Today, after another soul-crushing loss, FanGraphs is projecting the Cubs to win just 79 games. Their odds of taking the division have drifted down to 7.2% and their overall odds of making the playoffs are down to just 18.5%.
Somehow that’s equal parts incredibly disappointing and surprisingly optimistic.
PECOTA Projections and Playoff Odds
PECOTA apparently is more confident in their own forecast.
Back in February, that system projected 80.2 wins for the Cubs on average, and today that number remains identical. However, they had the Cubs at a 31.6% chance of making the playoffs back then, compared to just 23.6% today.
NOTE: PECOTA originally had the Cardinals taking the division with 85.5 wins, but they’ve since dropped them down to 83.6 wins, projecting the Brewers to end up on top with somewhere between 86-87 wins.
So once again, it’s a big drop, but I guess technically not over for the Cubs, who are somewhere in the range of a 1 in 5 chance of making the postseason, depending on which algorithm you believe in most.
***
But Michael! What about last season!? Let’s talk about that.
On June 18, 2023, the Chicago Cubs (33-38) had an eerily similar record to their 2024 counterparts. But they got hot at the beginning of July, and went 38-20 to force themselves back into the conversation by early September. Obviously, then, it is possible to turn things around. Especially because the NL Central Wild Card race is even muddier this time around.
Except … coming back like that required a TON of effort, most notably grinding the bullpen into dust. And from September 7 on, the Cubs went 7-15, blowing game after game and running themselves right out of the race once again.
In other words, the mere act of willing themselves back into the hunt took a toll on the team (and specifically the bullpen) that almost directly led to the empty gas tank down the stretch. And that’s ignoring the almost-perfectly-timed winning streak that forced Jed Hoyer to add at the deadline in the first place.
So you’ll forgive me for not taking comfort in what happened last season or solace in the 1 in 5 chances at October baseball. It’s all possible, sure, but we’d be foolish to expect that to happen. And every day, the team seems intent on digging themselves into an even deeper hole.
