NEWSLETTER
This past offseason, Cody Bellinger signed his second contract with the Chicago Cubs. And although the three-year, $80M deal fell far short of what he and his agent, Scott Boras, were reportedly seeking, it did come with an opt out after 2024 and 2025. Not a bad deal for Bellinger, all things considered.
Cody Bellinger and the Opt-Out Decision
We all know Cody Bellinger had a great 2023 campaign (134 wRC+, 4.3 WAR), but because of (1) the way he succeeded offensively (there were some concerning underlying statistics), (2) the two preceding horrible seasons, and (3) the Qualifying Offer which attached him to draft pick compensation, teams just weren’t eager to jump at a $200M+ price tag. Not even for the age-28 season of a former MVP coming off an ostensibly great year. So instead, he returned to the Cubs with two chances to demonstrate to the market that his new approach and the subsequent results were repeatable and deserving of a bigger contract.
And don’t forget that: The goal is to opt out. It’s the entire reason Boras set the contact up the way he did. Actually playing out three years for $80 million was the juuuuust-in-case backstop.
So … how’s that going? Which way is it leaning? Thought it was worth a status check on today’s off-day.
The Financials
In my opinion, it’s going quite well for him, despite some of what I’m hearing and reading in the general discourse. No, Bellinger has definitely not been as productive as he was last season with the Cubs, but that’s not really the benchmark or threshold he needs to cross to justify an opt out, which is the primary concern of this article.
First, consider the coming contract terms if he stays:
2025: $27.5M ($2.5M buyout)
2026: 25M ($5M buyout)
When the time comes for Cody Bellinger to make a decision this winter, he’ll have to decide whether he wants to take his $2.5M buyout and hit the market as a 29-year-old free agent center fielder detached from draft pick compensation or stick with the Cubs on what’s effectively a two-year deal, $52.5M deal with an opt out after year one. To me, if he continues to perform at the same level, that’s an EASY opt-out given the way things have gone so far.
At a minimum, Bellinger should be able to test the market for that bigger deal again. And if he didn’t get it again, he’d have just as easy of a time finding like-terms to what he had just opted out of. Not only would he be unattached to draft pick compensation, he would also be a further year removed from those two increasingly-flukey-seeming terrible seasons.
The Performance
Just consider his current numbers, competency, and general situation at the moment.
This season, Cody Bellinger is slashing .263/.322/.432 (111 wRC+) with nine homers, four stolen bases, and the same TINY strikeout rate (15.6%) he debuted last year. And he’s doing all that with good base running, solid defense in center field, a good reputation, and the rare positional flexibility to play not only all three outfield spots well, but also play a plus first base.
Does anyone actually believe that a 29-year-old center fielder (with all that going for him) would not be able to get a better deal than what he’d be opting out of? Come on. Of course he could. But even that is probably selling him short, because he’s been a good bit better for a while now than his so-far-this-season numbers would have you believe.
You may have already forgotten, but Bellinger got off to a REALLY slow start this season. However, that slow start was short-lived and turned around significantly thereafter:
First 14 games (63 PAs): .167/.270/.296 (52 wRC+)
Last 47 games (204 PAs): .291/.338/.471 (129 wRC+)
If Bellinger played like THAT the rest of the way, then he might actually be looking at one of those big-time $100M+, 4-5 year deals he wanted last year. Obviously, we don’t know if he’ll continue to play that way, but that’s where he’s at right now.
The bottom line for me is this: If the season ended today and Cody Bellinger had to make his decision based only on his up-to-date numbers, I think he opts out. The potential for a better deal is pretty high, and the fallback of finding AT LEAST something similar would be a virtual lock.
