NEWSLETTER
One hallmark of the Chicago Cubs front office — throughout the Epstein-Hoyer administration, but especially in current era — is extreme patience and restraint. On nearly every decision. Jed Hoyer and the Cubs seem to always be the very last team to make announcements at roster deadlines, before arbitration hearings, in free agency, etc. It’s kind of their M.O., with the goal being to make a decision with the absolute maximum amount of information, however incremental, as possible.
Sometimes, I think that philosophy lacks a certain sense of conviction. But if you adhere to an approach — any approach, really — as consistently as Jed Hoyer has in this case, there are benefits. In the broader sense, rival teams, opposing GMs, and agents may choose to believe you just a little more when you say you won’t budge off your last offer. But even through a more narrow lens, look how it very specifically changed the team’s dynamic at the 2023 trade deadline.
Last season, on July 20, the Cubs lost to the Cardinals, falling to six games under .500 and 8.5 games out of first place. But then they won eight games in a row leading up to the deadline, forcing Hoyer to ADD (Jeimer Candelario, Jose Cuas) not subtract. If Hoyer was inclined to move earlier, he might have traded away some pieces and maybe the winning streak never happens. Or it does, but the sell-trades neuter the impact.
Setting aside whether that was the actually correct decision (obviously it didn’t work out for the Cubs), you can see some other reasons why he likes to wait as long as possible to pick a lane.
BUT EVEN IF that wasn’t the case, Jed Hoyer (and some other unnamed NL executives) aren’t skipping any opportunities to inform fans why they’re going to have to wait quite a bit longer to get going.
“Every year, there’s questions earlier and earlier about when the trade market is open,” Jed Hoyer said, via The Athletic. “I talk to teams every day — many teams every day — and the idea of making significant, big transactions in mid-June is unbelievably difficult. And, at times, it’s impossible because teams aren’t going to do that to their own fan base.”
“A lot of teams are not willing to make deals yet,” Hoyer continued. “The teams that usually want to make trades right now are sort of willing to do it if you pay a massive premium, which, let’s face it, for most people, it’s hard to do that. You’re doing something that’s irrational.”
So to recap, here are three reasons to temper your expectations of a market-jumping deal for the Chicago Cubs.
- Jed Hoyer’s aforementioned M.O.
- The unwillingness of other GMs to let down their own fan base too early in the season
- The massive premium attached on early trades
But if you’re like me, that still doesn’t tell you everything you want to know. Namely, what exactly is the premium on trades right now? That’s where the other executives chime in.
Via the The Athletic: “The cost of acquiring Jesus Luzardo, for example, would be doubled at the beginning of June as compared to a deal at the end of July. At this point, in mid-June, the premium would be 1.5 times the price compared to the deadline, multiple executives said.”
So there you go. Even if Jed Hoyer was not the way we know him to be. And even if some other GM was slightly more willing to deal, despite his fanbase, the cost of acquiring a player right now is somewhere between 1.5-2x more expensive right now than it would be a month from now.
I think there’s still an argument to be made that this particular Cubs team — which is not AT ALL set up to sell at the deadline and boasts a top-ranked farm system with multiple upper-level prospects that will need to be added to the 40-man roster this winter — should be more aggressive early on. Especially when they have such obvious holes to fill in the bullpen, and potentially behind the plate (even after Tomas Nido). But it just does not seem particularly likely.
