NEWSLETTER
With Yan Gomes DFA’d and Tomas Nido signed, the Cubs effectively traded one veteran back-up-ish catcher for another, hoping that the 30-year-old Nido still has tread on the tire. No one anticipates him being an impact bat, but he won’t have to do much to be an upgrade.
To that end, you do have to wonder how the starts will be apportioned between Nido and Miguel Amaya, who’d started just about two games for every one Gomes start.
Consider some of the 2024 offensive numbers for a moment:
It’s been easy to focus on the Yan Gomes part of all this because (1) his numbers were so egregiously bad, and (2) he’s the one who departed the roster. But look at Nido compared to Amaya, too. Really substantial difference in offensive production.
The sample size is small for Nido (90 PAs, just a touch fewer than Gomes), but even if you grab the last five seasons to get a much larger sample (.225/.261/.322/65 wRC+), Nido is still outpacing Amaya’s line. I’m not saying the Cubs just got a plus-bat catcher for free, but I will say that the batted ball metrics for Nido this year aren’t too bad, and he’s only 30. Sometimes catchers have their offensive peak later than other position players because of the nature of the defensive work at the position.
None of this is to even mention Nido’s superior defensive skills. Amaya can and will get better behind the plate with experience, but just about every measure suggests Nido is the better defensive catcher as of this moment.
All of that is to say, I don’t know that we should assume Nido will merely replace Gomes, in terms of starting volume. It’s possible, as he gets more comfortable with the pitching staff, he could turn this into more of a 50/50-type timeshare, in which case the Cubs might have just made an even bigger upgrade in 2024 performance the rest of the way.
Will it actually play out like that? Oh, who would be foolish enough to make that projection? Maybe Nido struggles badly at the plate. Maybe the adjustment to a new organization is really tough. So on and so forth. I’m just saying, on paper, this looks like a situation where Craig Counsell could pick his catching spots a little more carefully to optimize match-ups, rather than just following a strict 2/1 starting pattern.
Amaya’s long-term development is a consideration, I’m sure, as is the possibility that his offense could improve as the year goes on (the projection systems have him going close to a 90 wRC+ the rest of the way, whereas Nido projects around 75). I don’t rule anything out as the weeks and months go by. But if he continues to trend toward that 50 wRC+ line, with below-average overall contributions behind the plate, too, I’m not sure we should assume that Nido is simply going to replace only Gomes’ starts.
Some thoughts from Nido, himself, on adjusting to his new team (Marquee):
“I know a lot of them from facing them before and playing against them,” Nido said. “It’s not going to be very difficult. The guys have been great with me since I got here this morning to get me up to speed. I don’t think it will take me long at all. I’m excited to get to work ….
“Just a lot of videos, watching how they’ve pitched this year and their history. Just talking to Amaya as well, it’s a special group of guys – good pitching. I’m excited to be able to handle that staff.”
And from manager Craig Counsell (Marquee):
“Those guys are well versed at having to take in a lot of information and learn quickly and you do it with a new pitcher that comes up when you’re a catcher that’s been with the organization,” Counsell said. “So it’s part of the job, and those guys, we know, they take in a ton of information. They got to process a lot. They got to keep the good stuff, throw out the bad stuff and make a decision. They make a lot of decisions every day.”
And, for good measure, a bit from Counsell on where things stand with Amaya (The Athletic):
“He is getting better in this process,” Counsell said, praising Amaya for his game-calling and receiving. “Throwing has been a struggle. That’s a team thing. Pitchers and Miguel contribute to that. That’s certainly an area of improvement. It’s not really arm strength. It’s some accuracy issues he’s had with the throwing that he can make better.
“There’s a good offensive player in there, but sometimes you got to go through this to get there. Miguel is getting good experience here. I think a good player will come out the other side of that. But obviously, we have expectations to win games.”
The long-term belief in Amaya is still there, as it should be. But nearer-term, I don’t see anything in Counsell’s comments that rules out a greater chunk of starts for Nido than Gomes was seeing.
(Obligatory: No, I don’t see Moises Ballesteros, 20, coming up this season to take over a large share of the catching starts. Just not sure he’s realistically ready for that. But good lord is he hot to start his Triple-A career.)
