NEWSLETTER
John Deere Classic Sleeper Picks – The PGA Tour is heading southwest from Detroit to TPC Deere Run near the Illinois and Iowa border for the John Deere Classic. The tournament, which has been a regular fixture since 2000, is known for low scores, thanks to the course’s wide fairways, receptive greens, and straightforward putting surfaces. Success here usually comes from strategic course management rather than pure power. In fact, the last 14 winners have all scored 18-under or better, with last year’s champion, Sepp Straka, posting a 21-under score.
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While all playing styles can succeed at TPC Deere Run, the course tends to favor players who consistently find the fairway and have strong wedge play, particularly those who can get hot with their putter. Past winners such as J.T. Poston, Steve Stricker, Jordan Spieth, and Brian Harman embody these characteristics.
The field at the John Deere Classic is usually not as strong as other Tour events due to its place on the schedule. This year, the tournament falls two weeks before the Open Championship, and most top players have chosen to rest for a second consecutive week before heading to the Scottish Open next week. There are no players from the top 20 in the world rankings in attendance. Notable players include last year’s winner, Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth, Sungjae Im, Denny McCarthy, Jason Day, and Aaron Rai. Past champions and top 50 players J.T. Poston and Lucas Glover are also in the field.
TPC Deere Run is a public par-71 golf course located in the “Quad Cities” region of Silvis, Illinois, measuring 7,289 yards. The 385 acres of land it comprises are rich in American history, having been a former Arabian horse farm. The land has a diverse past, including Native American settlements, coal mining, cattle breeding, and farming. Despite being in a rural setting, the course is full of natural beauty, featuring rolling terrain along the Rock River, elevation changes, oak trees, ponds, and ravines.
Despite receiving high praise, TPC Deere Run is surprisingly underrated as an annual tour course. It hasn’t gained national top-100 public rankings and is not located in a prime area. However, the course has fantastic routing with movements around the property, featuring changes in directions. Like all TPC courses, it is meticulously maintained, with bentgrass fairways, Kentucky bluegrass rough, and bentgrass greens.
Although not extremely challenging, TPC Deere Run requires players to utilize their full bag of clubs due to sloping fairways, elevation changes, and tight dogleg holes. Over the past five events, the course has averaged 1.39 shots under par, making it the ninth easiest course in the Tour’s annual rotation.
For more information on the 2024 John Deere Classic, head to Betsperts Golf and check out The Rabbit Hole, a unique, officially licensed, fully customizable PGA Tour data search engine. The Rabbit Hole has over 25 metrics that cannot be found or customized anywhere else, along with 40+ course data filters and conditions unique to Betsperts Golf’s tool.
2024 John Deere Classic Sleeper Picks and Longshots
Neal Shipley
The low Am at both the Masters and the U.S. Open has recently turned pro and is carrying that strong recent form into his first few starts. Horsey Sauce finished T20 last week in Detroit but ranked third in SG: APP and sixth in SG: T2G for the week. The putter let him down a bit, but I love to see ball-striking numbers like this, even in a limited sample. He’s in the middle of the pack in overall birdie or better%, but he ranks second in this week’s field in BoB% from the fairway. I think he’s gained an incredible amount of confidence over the past few months, and in a game as fragile as this one, that goes a long way.
Michael Thorbjornsen
I’m going back to the well with the top elite-Am-who-recently-turned-pro, Michael Thorbjornsen. He got off to a decent start last week in Detroit but struggled in Friday’s second round before missing the cut on the number. He’s the same price as last week, but in a weaker field, so I’m willing to play the long game here and double down.
This is a bet on talent and one I’ll continue to make until he eventually breaks through.
Ryo Hisatsune
2024 has been an impressive yet under-the-radar PGA Tour debut for the 21-year-old Japanese prospect. Consistency has been lacking, but he’s finished T20 or better in six of his 19 starts, including a T18 finish at Valhalla back in May. Hisatsune caught my attention by finishing 5th in my model this week with no real alarming performances in any metric and thriving on courses with easy scoring conditions.
