NEWSLETTER
The Miami Heat are 9-point underdogs for Game 3 of the opening round of the NBA Playoffs against the Boston Celtics at FTX Arena on Saturday, beginning at 6:00 PM ET on TNT. The series is tied 1-1. The point total is set at 202.5 for the matchup.
Celtics vs. Heat Odds
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Game Time and Information
Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat?
Celtics and Heat Betting Trends, Records Against the Spread
The Celtics are 19-15-2 against the spread when favored by 9 points or more this season.
The two teams average a combined 28.2 more points per game, 230.7, than this game’s over/under of 202.5 points.
Boston and Miami have seen its opponents average a combined 15.1 more points per game than the point total of 202.5 set for this matchup.
The Celtics’ average point total in outings this year is 229.8, 27.3 points higher than the total in this game.
The average total for Miami’s games this year is 16.0 more points than the point total of 202.5 in this outing.
Boston’s ATS record is 42-36-4 this season.
The Heat are 40-39-3 ATS this season.
Celtics Stats & Insights
The Celtics are outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per game with a +930 scoring differential overall. They put up 120.6 points per game (second in the NBA) and allow 109.2 per outing (fifth in the league).
The Celtics rank second in the NBA at 46.3 rebounds per game. That’s 3.0 more than the 43.3 their opponents average.
Boston knocks down 3.6 more threes per game than the opposition, 16.5 (first in the league) compared to its opponents’ 12.9.
The Celtics average 124.1 points per 100 possessions on offense (first in the league), and give up 112.4 points per 100 possessions (third in the NBA).
The Celtics have scored at a much higher rate when playing at home than on the road in the 2023-24 season (123.1 at home versus 118.0 on the road), though they have surrendered fewer points in home games than on the road (107.9 opponent points per home game versus 110.5 on the road).
Heat Stats & Insights
The Heat’s +144 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 1.7 points per game) is a result of putting up 110.1 points per game (26th in NBA) while allowing 108.4 per contest (third in league).
Miami ranks 25th in the NBA at 42.3 rebounds per game. That’s similar to the 42.8 its opponents average.
The Heat knock down 12.5 three-pointers per game (18th in the league) compared to their opponents’ 13.0. They shoot 37.0% from deep, and their opponents shoot 35.3%.
The Heat rank 21st in the NBA with 115.0 points scored per 100 possessions, and fifth defensively with 113.1 points conceded per 100 possessions.
In 2023-24 Miami is averaging 4.0 more points per game at home (112.1) than away (108.1).
Celtics Key Players to Watch
Jayson Tatum averages 26.9 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, with 4.9 assists.
Derrick White’s averages this season are 15.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game.
Tatum leads active Celtics in three-point shooting, knocking down an average of 3.1 shots per game from beyond the arc.
Jaylen Brown averages 1.2 steals per game, while Kristaps Porzingis swats 1.9 shots per contest.
Heat Key Players to Watch
Bam Adebayo is having a well-balanced season overall, with 19.3 points per game, 10.4 rebounds per game, and 3.9 assists per game.
Duncan Robinson hits 2.8 threes per game.
The Heat’s defensive efforts get a lift from Adebayo (1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks per game).
Celtics vs. Heat Prediction
Over (202.5)
Celtics 116 – Heat 108
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