NEWSLETTER
Let’s distract ourselves from the Cubs’ dwindling playoff odds for a moment with a glimpse at the future. That is, Shohei Ohtani’s extremely-complicated, but still highly-anticipated trip into free agency.
If you’re reading this post, I’m sure you’re already generally aware of the context. But just in case, here’s the skinny: After putting together a prolonged stretch of MVP-caliber two-way play, Shohei Ohtani was set to become BY FAR the highest paid and most anticipated free agent in baseball history. What began as rumors of an easy-$400M deal, quickly turned into $500M, and eventually $600M, with literally *no one* thinking those numbers were out of the question or an overpay. But then the injuries struck, and we were all robbed of a straight-forward narrative.
Shohei Ohtani Injury Timeline
Here’s the rough timeline of the major events.
Obviously, those last few comments from Minasian are frustratingly opaque – is the procedure Tommy John surgery? Is that still on the table? How soon is soon? etc. I don’t think we’ll have the answers to those questions anytime soon. In fact, I’m a little surprised Minasian revealed any major health information about Ohtani at all. I know Ohtani is still a part of the Angels’ organization, but his season is over and he’s headed to free agency. If I were his agent, at this point I’d want ALL intel to flow directly (and only) through me. There is a lot of money at stake here.
Speaking of which, a massive (perhaps even still historic) contract still seems to be the expectation. I no longer think $600 million is on the table (that’s just my own speculation); and frankly, even a straight-forward $500M might be a tough ask. But I do think Ohtani should still get $400M guaranteed. Beyond that, maybe he can still become the league’s first $500M man with a creative structure based around innings pitched? The future is all very unclear, and I don’t think we will know the exact answer until we understand (1) what procedure Ohtani underwent, (2) how successful it was, (3) if he’s at least able to DH next season from Day 1, and (4) what his prognosis is for pitching in 2025 and beyond.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some juicy rumors or updates out there …
Latest Shohei Ohtani Rumors
The Cubs continue to be mentioned as a “logical contender” or “potential suitor,” if you’d like to keep your hopes alive (though that’s usually just a long list of the big market teams that could even afford Ohtani in a vacuum).
More recently, Jon Heyman shaved that longer list down to just six teams: the Dodgers, Padres, Cubs, Rangers, Giants, and … Red Sox.
And it’s that last team that gets our main attention today, because they come with a fresh, more specific mention from Peter Gammons:
In case geography isn’t your thing, the Red Sox are (by far) the furthest east team on Heyman’s list of potential suitors. In fact, they’re the furthest east team in all of MLB! And so his reported interest in the Red Sox is especially notable news because so far, the general consensus is that Ohtani would prefer to play as far west as possible — closer to his native Japan. Perhaps even only on the West Coast.
But as Gammons points out, the fit for Ohtani in Boston right now is a little tenuous (not that you wouldn’t move heaven and earth to make room for him). With that said, the Red Sox also just fired their President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom. The impact of that high-level organizational change on a potentially historic pursuit of Ohtani is simply not clear. I could make convincing arguments that it makes the Red Sox either more OR less likely to go after him. For now, we’ll just have to settle for the rumor that he is theoretically open to playing for Boston. That’s big enough.
And that brings us to our next, but related rumor: The Mets.
New York is also going through fairly massive organizational changes (both in the front office and on the field).
In addition to trading away both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the deadline — with an apparent eye on next competing again in 2025 — they Mets also just hired David Stearns to be their new President of Baseball Operations. Again, who knows what impact that has on their immediate direction. But according to the latest rumor out of New York, the Mets would (understandably) reshape their plans if it meant luring Ohtani to New York.
“If the Japanese superstar is willing (to play on the East Coast), every baseball person I spoke to fully expects that owner Steve Cohen would make the biggest offer, even if Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 and even though the Mets have indicated they may not be all-in next season after their sell-off at the trade deadline.
‘I’d have to believe their thinking changes if Ohtani tells them he’d come to New York,’ said a rival team executive. ‘He’d make their offense above-average with the potential to be better than that if their young guys produce. Then you go spend on pitching — sign a starter and trade some prospect capital for another, then beef up the bullpen and you’ve got a legit contender.'”
So there ya go. Don’t count the Mets out yet. If Ohtani is willing to play on the East Coast, Steve Cohen will be ready to pounce.
On its own, that may have not been major news (of course Cohen would be willing to spend on Ohtani). But with the separate report that Boston/the East Coast is apparently on the table, well … that’s a different story. The field could be even more wide open that we may have thought/hoped.
