NEWSLETTER
I’ve stopped writing up every Cody Bellinger update we see out there because I think you already know what it’s going to say: the Cubs and Bellinger are interested in a reunion, they are far apart on price right now. The waiting continues. That’s really the size of it.
For example – and this is not a criticism of the reporting, since people do want to know where things stand, and this is simply where they stand – Mark Feinsand reported the latest at MLB.com. After noting that the Angels, Giants, Mets, Mariners, and Blue Jays could make sense depending on price, he wrote:
“Then there are the Cubs, who must still be viewed as favorites to bring Bellinger back to the North Side. Chicago hasn’t done anything to this point to replace his bat in the lineup, but with few teams making an aggressive push for Bellinger, the Cubs front office has shown great restraint, not wanting to bid against itself to get Bellinger signed.
Ultimately, the widespread belief within the industry is that Bellinger and the Cubs will reunite, but only if/when his asking price comes down.”
In other words, I think we can (continue to) safely conclude four things:
1.) Cody Bellinger would prefer to sign with the Cubs;
2.) The Cubs would like to sign Cody Bellinger;
3.) The asking price on Bellinger at the moment is much higher than the Cubs are willing to consider; and
4.) No other team is stepping up in the range of the asking price.
So, until and unless at least one of those four things changes, nothing will happen. If a team steps up and is willing to go over $200 million, my guess is that’s the deal that gets done. If not, then it probably continues like this until Bellinger and Boras relent, deciding to just take as much money as they can possibly get from the Cubs.
That means, at the moment, it *SEEMS* the Cubs are not at risk of losing Bellinger to another team for a deal that looks reasonable on its face. Instead, the Cubs are at risk of losing Bellinger to another team if they go above and beyond.
Of course, that comes with a big caveat: we don’t know for sure that the Cubs are even willing to go to the six-ish-year, $150-ish-million range that many early projections had Bellinger landing. A lot of folks are making that assumption because of how well the sides fit together this past year, but I will keep on mentioning that, for as much as Bellinger fits in 2024, it gets much cloudier after that. Not so much that you wouldn’t want to sign him, but enough that I’m not certain the Cubs would see 6/$150M as a wise deal. (Heck, objectively, it probably isn’t the right level for the Cubs, but I’ll admit the fan in me just wants to see the deal get done.)
That is to say, it’s entirely possible we don’t REALLY know how wide the spread is here. Maybe Bellinger and Boras have already come down under $200? Maybe the Cubs are only at something really wild like three years and $80 million? It seems unlikely, but I suppose we don’t know. And it’s not like that would be shocking, all things considered.
Anyway, like I said, you already know where things stand. It’s a waiting game, and until something fundamental to the process changes, there will be no movement.
Anyone else feeling a vague sense of similarity to the first Dexter Fowler free agency, by the way? There are a LOT of parallels here. Hey, maybe this one ends with Cody Bellinger showing up to Spring Training in a surprise announcement, too?
