NEWSLETTER
Tis a sad weekend for NASCAR fans with no Auto Club Speedway on tap. So, instead we head to Atlanta for our second consecutive superspeedway race to begin the season. Trying to make Ambetter Health 400 Bets is as difficult as it was making Daytona 500 picks, but sitting on pit road is no fun. So here, we, go.
Ambetter Health 400 Bets
*Odds current at time of publication
Ross Chastain to win +2000 (BetMGM) .5u
I like to have fun at these type of tracks and there’d be no better way to celebrate than by having some early season watermelon. Ross drove like a boss in the first two races at new Atlanta. Leading 42 and 32 laps respectively while finishing both of those races in the runner-up position. Last season was a bit of a different story with him finishing both outside the top 10 and actually being one of the 3 cars to DNF in the fall.
Just like his farming crop though, it’s a new season for this version of Chastain and his potential was on full display this past Monday at Daytona. His newfound “patient aggressiveness” I’ll call it, resulted in him making a move to win the Daytona 500 while taking the white flag. No matter the fact that resulted in a 21st place finish, he was one of the few cars with a legit chance to win at the end and that’s all you can ask for at these types of races.
The watermelon man has proven his skills on this track twice before. And at other drafting tracks with a win at Talladega under his belt in 2022. Coming off that huge confidence boosting win at Phoenix to close out last year, I expect a return to the level of competitiveness we saw during that 2022 season. Let’s hope it begins today.
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Chase Elliott +125 Over Joey Logano (SuperBook) 1u
Talk about potential fools gold, but I’m taking the bait. Not just because Joey is my betting nemesis, but because the data says so.
Last Spring, Logano absolutely dominated the field. He sat on pole, led 140 of 260 laps, and won the race. Elliott didn’t participate that day, but in the Summer, while kind of going through the motions, Chase wound up finishing ahead of Joey. Even after starting 19 spots behind him.
| “New” Atlanta Races w/both | Elliott +125 | Logano -145 |
|---|---|---|
| H2H | 3 | 0 |
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Laps Led | 125 | 23 |
| Avg. finish | 6.7 | 17.3 |
| DNF | 0 | 1 |
This number is far too long for a driver that has already won here. Has a low finish of 13th, and completed every scheduled lap in the races he’s run. Elliott is one of the favorites to win Sunday, and will quite possibly be the most popular DFS option as well. In what has become my favorite pastime during my NASCAR betting adventure, it’s fade Joey Logano time once again.
Austin Cindric Top 10 +175 (BetRivers) 2u
Considering the prices on top-10’s at Daytona and this week at Atlanta, this one really surprises me. Cindric really soured on NASCAR bettors last season after posting just 5 total top-10 finishes and a single result inside the top-5. This, coming off his rookie of the year campaign in 2022 that saw him win the Daytona 500 and notch four other top-5’s and finish with nine results of 10th or better.
Still, Austin is one of the better drafting track racers we have. This was on full display last week at Daytona, where it was he and Chastain mixing it up for the win with one lap to go. Cindric is also once again starting inside the top-10 (8th) here at “new” Atlanta with the previous three times resulting in finishes of 12th or better.
Overall, he’s cashed this bet just once during the previous four races on the new configuration. But he’s led laps in each of the last three, and finished the first two stages of both races last year inside the top-10. Being in the shadows of both Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney isn’t a bad thing for us. It just means we’re getting a great number for one of my favorite Ambetter Health 400 bets.
Ambetter Health 400 Bets: Best Bet
Ryan Blaney +100 Over Kyle Larson (DraftKings) 2u
I know you can take most results at superspeedways, or in the case of “new” Atlanta, superspeedway “style” tracks with a grain of salt. but the results comparison here ISN’T EVEN CLOSE!
| “New” Atlanta Races | Blaney +100 | Larson -135 |
|---|---|---|
| H2H | 4 | 0 |
| Worst Finish | 17 | 36 |
| Laps Led | 27 | 5 |
| Avg. finish | 9.5 | 27.5 |
| DNF | 0 | 3 |
To make matters worse, here are the drivers with 1 or fewer RAF (running at finish) results at “new” Atlanta: Kurt Busch, David Ragan, Landon Cassill, Garrett Smithley, Josh Bilicki, Greg Biffle, and… KYLE LARSON! The problem with being associated with these guys is that Larson is the only one who has run more than 2 of the 4 races here. And to top it all off, Yung Money has started no worse than 21st at them, and inside the top-10 in each of the last three ATL events.
Conversely, Ryan Blaney has now started each “new” Atlanta race 6th or better. Led multiple laps in all four. And finished each of the last three inside the top-10. All while completing every single lap in the process.
Kyle Larson is possibly the best driver in all of American motorsports. But he’s just not great at drafting tracks while it’s no secret that Ryan Blaney is amongst the best. There was no doubt, this was going to be one of my few Ambetter Health 400 bets.
