NEWSLETTER
Expectations should be high for the Chicago Bears in 2024.
You might not expect that sentence to be written about a team coming off three consecutive 10+ loss campaigns and has not had a winning year in six seasons. Frankly, I don’t blame you for giving me the side-eye for that lead sentence. But these Bears have a different vibe as we make our way to the Week 1 opener against the Tennessee Titans in 80 days. Hence, I’m feeling optimistic about this team’s future. Maybe you should be, too.
Part of my optimism is fueled (admittedly, in an odd way) by this tandem of tweets, which gives some great context and perspective that explains why the Bears finished with a 7-10 record in 2023:
Don’t get it twisted. I realize the losing *DID* help the Bears get into a position to land Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick. But that alone doesn’t make the pain of watching fourth-quarter collapses come in waves disappear entirely. Does it soften the blow? A little. Will future Odunze touchdowns serve as a consolation prize? Sure, I guess. However losing still stinks, there is no denying it. And, frankly, I can’t act as if mounting losses didn’t wear on me. I can’t imagine I’m alone in feeling that way.
This is how close the Bears were to winning — and how close they could be to turning the corner
Ultimately, my reading of the tweets above from Warren Sharp is that those numbers genuinely put into perspective how close last year’s Bears team was to being legitimately good. Players and coaches who return from last year’s squad should be able to take lessons from those late-game losses and use them to build on this season. There were a bunch of teachable moments from the 2023 season. For what it’s worth, I’m very much down to see folks learn from their mistakes from one year and do what is necessary to not repeat them in the next. If players, coaches, and teams aren’t doing that, then what are we doing this exercise for in the first place?
The Bears’ inability to finish games after starting strong drove me nuts last year. Playing three good quarters only to come undone in the fourth was offensive to my football sensibilities. We’re months removed from the last meaningful Bears regular-season game, and this *STILL* bugs me. And if you’re a Bears fan, I imagine it irks you, too.
Bears Head Coach Eberflus was the defensive play-caller for a defense that blew three double-digit fourth-quarter leads while overseeing an offense that failed to recreate the magic that helped build those leads, which made for some sleepless nights around here. There was a 21-point stinker against the Denver Broncos in Week 4, a 12-point margin that got wiped away in the blink of an eye in a defeat at the hands of the Detroit Lions in Week 11, and a 10-point lead that got away in a loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 15. For it to happen as much as it did to the Bears, and in a similar way each time, falls on the head coach.
There is such a thin line between winning and losing. That is the big takeaway from the two tweets above from Sharp Football. I know I shouldn’t feel great about the fourth-quarter stuff. But the numbers showcasing the success through three quarters suggest that things should’ve been better. At a minimum, I feel the Bears weren’t as bad as their fourth quarters. Although their play in the game’s closing moments hints they weren’t as good as the stats from the first three quarters would indicate.
Is there a happy medium to be had here?
What happened to the Bears in the fourth quarter helps explain their offseason decision-making
Justin Fields will get a lot of blame for Chicago’s fourth-quarter failures because of his numbers in crunch time. That comes with the territory of being a quarterback.
Justin Fields’ fourth-quarter stats (2023)
Justin Fields’ stats from the first three quarters (2023)
The fall off from the first three quarters is staggering. And in a game where quarterback play is everything, not getting their best when it matters most can swing things in the wrong direction. And because Fields had second-half and fourth-quarter issues in 2022, you can see how those trends could’ve helped nudge the team into deciding to switch it up at quarterback this offseason.
If you were going to build a case this past offseason on why the Bears should move on from Justin Fields, you’d point at his fourth quarter numbers. But the case for dumping Matt Eberflus also began in the same place.
We can’t ignore how Eberflus also put on a masterclass on how to cough up late leads. There were too many times when the Bears needed Eberflus to be a steady hand to guide the ship through murky waters, and he simply couldn’t pull through. Making the offseason changes they did presents Eberflus a second chance and an opportunity to right some wrongs in the past. Again, we’re circling back to fixing one’s mistakes. Not everyone gets second chances. I hope Eberflus makes the most of his in 2024.
Again, this isn’t just about laying the blame at the feet of one individual. You could point out Fields’ shortcomings as a fourth-quarter passer, Eberflus’ mishandling of situations, and former offensive coordinator Luke Getsy for a litany of things. My point, at the end of the day, is that all of these factors came together to play a role in this mess.
Thankfully, the Bears made wide-ranging changes throughout the staff and roster. And while I know they won’t be some magical cure-all, I hope that putting new eyes on old problems will provide some fixes. I’m looking forward to seeing how Eberflus, his new-look staff, and a reshaped roster eliminate the issues that kept last year’s team from reaching its full potential. Because if he can’t, I imagine Ryan Poles will be in the market for a coach who can.
