NEWSLETTER
The San Diego Padres are set to make their first-round selection in the 2024 MLB Draft with the 25th overall pick.
Exploring Potential Fits for the San Diego Padres in the 1st Round of the 2024 MLB Draft.
The San Diego Padres own the 25th overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft. San Diego has taken a high school player in each of the last seven drafts, and MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo has them sticking with the trend, selecting Kash Mayfield from Elk City High School in Oklahoma.
Mayfield’s fastball has significantly improved from the upper 80s to 92-95 mph and can reach 97 with armside run and carry. His changeup is advanced, dropping effectively at the plate to enhance his fastball. While his slurvy breaking ball lacks power, Mayfield’s effective location sets him apart.
Teams may be wary due to his limited track record, lack of showcase circuit data, and his age (19 years, 5 months on Draft Day), but his potential is undeniable. He may still have room for further development and shares some similarities with Jordan Wicks, making him a more promising prospect at this stage.
The Athletic’s Keith Law also has the Padres sticking with the prep route here, but he has San Diego taking William Schmidt from Catholic High School in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
“Could be Schmidt or other prep arms like Kash Mayfield, Doughty, Ryan Sloan. For now, it seems like folks expect the Padres to go high school arm because so many teams are going the other direction.”
Schmidt’s curveball reaches over 3,000 rpm and fools both umpires and hitters. His fastball has gained 3 mph, now in the mid-90s and topping out at 99 mph with carry and arm-side run. He rarely needs a third pitch but shows some proficiency with a low-80s changeup that has some sink. Schmidt has some of the best attributes in the Draft, effortlessly filling the strike zone. There’s room for him to gain more strength in his 6-foot-4 frame. He used to draw comparisons to three-time All-Star Adam Wainwright, but now he’s even better.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel is one of three prominent experts who has the Padres taking a prep player here. McDaniel has San Diego going with shortstop Kellon Lindsey from Hardee High School in Florida.
“As usual, the Padres are connected to almost entirely high school players, and especially heavily on prep pitching. Caminiti has long been a San Diego target but it’s unlikely he gets near here, and this is probably also Mayfield’s floor. Two more prep lefties, David Shields and Boston Bateman, are more likely targets for the Padres’ next pick than here, while Gage Jump, a former prep lefty target years ago who is now at LSU, also fits there. Lewis is another prep shortstop mentioned here.”
Lindsey, a talented athlete with top-tier run times, has shown considerable progress in baseball. He has a short, right-handed swing and good strike zone awareness, drawing walks against weaker opponents. His defensive skills have also improved, making him a strong candidate for shortstop. As the spring season progressed, talk of him being a first-round draft pick at the University of Florida emerged.
Pretty much anywhere you look, San Diego is connected to a high school player with less than a month between today and the MLB Draft. Whether it’s a prep arm or bat, it seems likely that the Padres will stick with their recent trend of taking a high-upside prep player in the first round.
