NEWSLETTER
The Minnesota Wild visit the United Center on Sunday, giving us a final opportunity to view the league’s rookie of the year race on ice. Connor Bedard vs. Brock Faber. It should be worth the price of admission. The two players appear to be locks to finish 1-2 in the Calder Trophy voting, and destined to be rivals for years to come in the Central Division.
To their credit, the Wild made a magnificent trade when they brought Faber “home” to Minnesota; they got Faber and a first-round pick in the 2022 NHL Draft from the LA Kings for forward Kevin Fiala. The Blackhawks obviously selected Bedard first overall in the 2023 NHL Draft.
So that brings us to the conversation of the month: who’s the NHL’s rookie of the year? Plenty of Minnesota fans and writers are trying to tell us it’s Faber, who has been fantastic this season for the Wild. This week, ESPN had Faber now having an edge in their poll of voters. I’m not discounting his performance in any way; in most other years, he would probably be a lock for the Calder.
He just picked the wrong year to be a rookie in the NHL.
The first thing I’ll say about Faber before diving into the case for Bedard is this: during the 2020-21 season, when Faber was 18, he appeared in 27 games and produced one goal and 11 assists. For Minnesota — the Golden Gophers. Faber played three collegiate seasons after he was drafted 45th overall by the Kings in 2020. He was a freshman in college when he was playing at the age Bedard is now. I’m sorry, but that’s a significant consideration.
Why Connor Bedard is a Calder Lock
The biggest thing I look at when I consider Bedard’s case for the league’s top rookie honor is context. Not only his age, but also the team he’s on, their expectations and what he’s meant to the team.
The Wild were supposed to be in the playoffs; some felt before the season they would challenge for the Central Division title. The Blackhawks, on the other hand, were supposed to be near the top of the draft lottery odds again this year. One team has done what was expected. And it hasn’t been Minnesota, even though Faber’s skating an impressively heavy workload.
Let’s take a look at how the Blackhawks performed before Bedard broke his jaw, while he was out of the lineup, and since he returned. For the purposes of this discussion, I’m eliminated the game in New Jersey on Jan. 5 in which Bedard broke his jaw and only skated 3:05 because he was in the lineup but didn’t play much (the “after” is before Saturday’s game).
38 games
2.34 goals/game
12.7% on the power play
8.8 shooting percentage as a team
3.84 penalties drawn per 60 minutes
14 games
1.43 goals/game
10.5% on the power play
5.4 shooting percentage as a team
3.47 penalties drawn per 60 minutes
22 games
2.50 goals/game
26.2% on the power play
8.9 shooting percentage as a team
3.58 penalties drawn per 60 minutes
The biggest number that jumps from these is the Blackhawks’ power play since Bedard returned. Chicago ranks seventh in the NHL since Bedard returned on the power play, an enormous jump from a team that was awful while he was out.
When you consider the Blackhawks haven’t seen a huge increase/decrease in penalties drawn per 60 minutes throughout the season — 0.4 per 60 dip when Bedard left the lineup — the increase is significant. Bedard has 2 goals and 9 assists on the power play since he returned from the injury.
Now look at where the Blackhawks’ offense went while he was out. They were a full half goal worse than any team in the league while he was out; no other team averaged below two goals per game during the time Bedard was missing. They’ve seen the offense increase by more than a full goal per game since he returned. What’s the catalyst? It’s obviously 98.
Bedard has been the NHL’s Rookie of the Month three times this season. He’s the first player to do that since Connor McDavid.
His ranks among rookies this season:
I’ll note that, among rookies as a whole, Faber ranks first overall at 25 minutes per game. But Bedard is the only forward in the top 11 (min. 20 games) and Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson — the No. 2 pick in 2023 — is the only other rookie forward over 18 minutes per game.
Bedard leads all rookies in all of these categories and he’s second in power play points even while missing 14 games over 6 weeks. Think about where he might be if he had even 10 of those games back.
Bedard was labeled a generational talent when he was drafted and came into the league with incredible hype. He’s the No. 1 selling jersey in the league. He’s driving television ratings and social media clicks. He’s been worthy of the attention.
But the numbers tell us Connor Bedard should be the NHL’s 2023-24 rookie of the year. And, frankly, it’s only close because Faber has been so damn good for the Wild.
