Why the Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine Trade Rumors Are Intertwined

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Bradley Beal is in trade rumors.

The Washington Wizards’ All-Star has been a part of the rumor mill for years on end. As the organization has repeatedly struggled to build a consistent playoff contender, many have either speculated that Beal would ask out or the front office would move him to begin a rebuild.

Instead, the two sides have repeatedly stuck with it. Beal and Washington even agreed to a five-year, $251 million contract last offseason. And, get this, they included a no-trade clause in the deal, which means Beal has the final say on any future trade discussions.

With that being the case, one would think the trade rumors would finally come to an end. But then the Wizards hired a new president in Michael Winger. The organization is now seemingly considering the rebuild they have avoided for years. And, to no surprise, that includes a potential preference to trade Beal. Indeed, multiple reports shared on Wednesday that Beal and his agent are on standby to discuss trade destinations if the Wizards officially decide to blow it up.

You can read much more on that here:

The big question now, however, is who would be interested in Beal’s services? Once a rising multi-time All-Star who was leading the league in scoring as he entered his prime, Beal is now one of the highest-paid players who has failed to play more than 60 games since the 2018-19 season. After averaging 30.9 points per game between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 campaigns, the 29-year-old has scored a much more modest 23.2 points per game the past two seasons.

Now, to be fair, Beal is coming off a career-high 50.6 percent shooting from the field. His efficiency at the rim has only improved with age, as he’s still shown that he is among the league’s better pure scorers. But, conversely, his 3-point shot hasn’t been nearly as consistent the past two years and his volume has shrunk, as well. Simply put, Beal doesn’t appear to be the same reliable nightly bucket-getter as he used to be.

None of that is to say he still can’t put together an All-Star-caliber season or two. I don’t want to make this seem like he isn’t still one of the NBA’s most talented scorers. He is. But when we combine his games played, diminishing stats, and (especially) massive price tag, his value as an asset is greatly diminished. The no-trade clause would also come with him to wherever he ends up next, which is another massive layer to this whole thing.

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Adrian Wojnarowski acknowledged this on NBA Today. The two stated that a deal could be complicated to find, with Windhorst specifically mentioning that the return could surprise some: “If it gets done, it’s not going to be like the trade we’ve seen … It’s not going to be the kind of multi-draft pick trade because of the parameters,” Windhorst said.

Let’s also not forget that the NBA’s new CBA is going to severely punish teams for going too far over the tax apron. With that in mind, adding Beal’s contract onto the books for the next several seasons could feel even harder to swallow for contenders.

With all of that said, it’s going to be absolutely fascinating to watch how his market develops. It’s also going to be fascinating to see if this gives other teams a chance to dangle their assets in front of interested parties.

Look, I couldn’t help but think about Zach LaVine the moment this latest Beal report broke. Why? Well, it sure feels like any team that is interested in Beal’s services would also be interested in LaVine. The two are both gifted three-level scorers who can surely boost any offense as a true difference-maker on a contending team. In fact, an easy argument can be made that LaVine is the better investment.

Let’s compare their stats over the last four seasons (h/t Stathead):

For as many concerns as there seemingly are about LaVine’s health, he’s comfortably been the more reliable of the two players in recent years. The other key thing to note is that, while Beal has a higher scoring average, LaVine has been the comfortably more efficient scorer. He has held a higher EFG% than Beal in each of the past four seasons while averaging more points per game than Beal in each of the past two seasons.

Then, when we factor in the money owed to each player, things become all the more interesting. LaVine signs a five-year, $215 million contract last offseason. Beal also inked himself a new deal prior to this season but inked a five-year, $251 million contract WITH that no-trade clause.

Here’s an outline of the approximate salary each has coming their way through the remainder of their contracts:

While the financial boost the league will get thanks to its next TV rights deal will make both contracts a bit more palatable, there is no denying that’s still a hefty chunk of change. And, as we mentioned before, the new CBA is only going to punish teams more for going deep into the luxury tax. With that being the case, every single dollar matters, making LaVine’s deal the far more attractive one.

To be clear, I don’t think claiming that LaVine is the better asset is a hot take. While it might not be something some immediately consider, it is something that’s relatively easy to see. I’m just bringing this all up because Beal’s availability could present the Bulls with an easy list of teams to contact in the trade market.

The team is reportedly surveying the market to see which teams might have an interest in LaVine’s services. If anyone out there is expressing a desire to trade for Beal, that team should be an obvious suitor. Now, the only problem might be that those teams aren’t prepared to pay the price it would take to land LaVine. For all the reasons mentioned above, he should be considered the better asset and, thus, the more expensive one. Beal’s trade return likely isn’t going to be as lofty.

So the question is … will teams prefer to pay more now and less later for LaVine or less now and more later for Beal? I tend to believe that the majority of organizations might actually prefer the former in this situation, particularly because of the new CBA rules coming. Maybe I’m wrong.

Anyway, I just think Beal’s potential availability only opens the door further for the Bulls to get in on trade talks. I guess a case could be made that less market competition is always better, but there is an opportunity here for Chicago to potentially slide into certain discussions with a more appealing asset. Heck, even DeMar DeRozan might be a cheaper option for teams that ultimately feel uncomfortable going all-in for Beal.

At the very least, the Beal talks around the NBA should help set the price for a LaVine trade. The Bulls can go in and see what teams are willing to give up for Beal and figure out how much more they can realistically ask for on top of that. And that’s not nothing!