NEWSLETTER
There is a non-zero chance Arturas Karnisovas is currently in Punta Cana drinking a Strawberry Daiquiri and eating hand-fed popcorn from Benny the Bull. In other words, I wouldn’t expect much business over the next couple of weeks.
With Summer League and free agency a thing of the past, the NBA will hit pause until Media Days begin near the end of September. To be sure, the Chicago Bulls do only have 13 guaranteed contracts set for next season, meaning they have two full-time roster spots left to fill (Carlik Jones technically holds one of those spots, but we will not see his deal become even partially guaranteed until opening night). So while some news could trickle out about at least one more signing, there is also the possibility the team waits until training camp to round out the rest of the roster.
I also wouldn’t be too surprised if we don’t hear anything about the future of Patrick Williams and DeMar DeRozan until reporters pose the question when training camp gets underway. While it may not have been the most important line of business this summer, both Williams and DeRozan entered this offseason extension eligible.
DeMar DeRozan’s Situation
Indeed, DeMar DeRozan is about to begin the final year of his three-year, $81.9 million deal. Once viewed as a harsh overpay, the 33-year-old has only made the contract look more and more like a steal. DeRozan has averaged 26.2 points on 50.4 percent shooting from the field over his two seasons in Chicago. He’s also finished first and second in the league in total clutch points scored, respectively, while cracking back-to-back All-Star Games.
When we consider his impressive play, it’s not hard to imagine that DeRozan will expect another large payday on his next deal. He’s shown that – despite creeping toward his mid-30s – he can score at one of the most efficient rates in the league. Even ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said in a recent episode of the Hoops Collective Podcast that he believes DeRozan would have “significant interest on the free-agent market and a lot of options” next summer. So, if the Bulls wanted to keep him, they’d have to make an extension worth his while.
Maximum extensions for veterans started at 120 percent of whatever that player made in the final year of their previous deal. However, the new CBA bumped that number up to 140 percent, which means DeRozan could ask for a max extension over four years worth roughly a $45 million AAV. While I don’t at all expect Chicago – or any team for that matter – to go that high, I wouldn’t at all blame DeRozan for starting at that price. And, well, he’s going to have all the leverage in negotiations with unrestricted free agency looming in 2024.
If the Bulls’ re-signing of Nikola Vucevic is any indication, I do expect the organization to have at least some conversations with DeRozan about an extension. We should also note that these discussions can continue into the start of the regular season. But my guess would be they try to keep things closer to the $27.3 million AAV he’d made over this last deal. Again, considering how well DeRozan has played, I’m not sure how he and his agent will feel about that.
If the two sides can’t come to terms on something that makes sense for both parties, then Chicago will have to STRONGLY consider trading DeRozan this season. I honestly think this is something they should consider regardless of how negotiations go, as tying yourself to a core of Vucevic, DeRozan, and LaVine past this season only feels like bear-hugging mediocrity harder.
Patrick Williams’ Situation
Now, the case is very different for the Bulls’ other extension-eligible player. Unlike DeRozan, Chicago has pretty much all the leverage when it comes to Patrick Williams. If the two sides couldn’t reach an extension agreement this offseason, then Chicago can simply extend Williams a qualifying offer next summer and make him a restricted free agent. They would then have the ability to match any offer sheet that another team threw his way.
We just saw a similar situation play out with 23-year-old Coby White. After some rocky first few years, the Bulls decided to evaluate White for one more season before deciding to make a long-term commitment. To White’s credit, he impressed, which resulted in the organization swiftly reaching a new three-year, $33 million deal this summer.
Spotrac’s Keith Smith projected the rookie scale extensions for the 2020 NBA Draft class earlier this offseason, and he threw out the idea of a five-year, $100 million deal for Williams. I remember this number throwing many Bulls fans for a loop at the time. While I do think it’s higher than the Bulls would go right now, I don’t think it’s a completely crazy idea based on the NBA’s rising salary cap. A $20 million AAV is going to likely become the basic price tag on a solid starter. And, say what you will about Williams, but he’s still only 21 years old. The idea of him becoming a good starter over the next FIVE years isn’t that hard to fathom.
With that said, my expectation for the time being is that we do not see a new deal signed before the deadline in October. The Bulls know they have all the power, and if Williams takes a significant leap in the right direction and garners a bunch of high-end offer sheets, AKME will simply feel comfortable paying up to keep him. If he merely has a modest year, the Bulls then might be able to lock him down on a pretty inexpensive contract.
If one thing is for sure, though, Patrick Williams is the far more likely bet to be in a Bulls uniform past this season. Youth is on his side, and he’ll likely remain a key piece to the puzzle if the organization finally decides to pivot after another lackluster season.
