2024 NBA Mock Draft: High Ceiling or High Floor?

The NBA Finals are just around the corner, and with the calendar about to turn to June, it’s nearly NBA Draft month. Only three teams are still alive in the NBA Playoffs, which means 27 others are fully focused on the offseason. With the NBA Draft Combine in the rearview, teams will turn to individual workouts which can leave us hints on who might be the most interested in certain prospects.

With that in mind, let’s get into our latest 2024 NBA Mock Draft!

It’s important to remember the dramatic turn of events that unfolded with the draft order. In a surprising upset, the Atlanta Hawks defied all odds and emerged victorious in the draft lottery, securing the coveted No. 1 overall pick for the upcoming June draft. This was a major shock considering their initial low chances of only 3 percent to land the top spot.

On the other hand, the Detroit Pistons, who toiled all season long with the league’s worst record, suffered a significant setback. For the second year in a row, their pursuit of the number one pick fell short, and they now find themselves slotted at No. 5 in the draft order.

How Does the NBA Draft Lottery Work?

Following the conclusion of the season, the NBA uses a lottery system to decide the first 14 picks in the draft order.

Before we look at the draft order, here’s how the NBA Draft Lottery system works:

Eligible Teams: The 14 teams that do not qualify for the NBA playoffs are eligible to participate in the draft lottery. This includes teams that make the Play-In Tournament but don’t advance past the Play-In Tournament.

NBA Draft Lottery Odds: The teams with the worst records have higher chances of winning a top pick. The teams with the three worst records have the highest chance – 14 percent – while the odds incrementally decrease for teams with better records among the non-playoff teams.

Ping Pong Balls: Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 will be placed in a lottery machine. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14. Before the lottery, 1,000 of those 1,001 combinations are assigned to the 14 participating lottery teams. Those three with the highest odds will be given 140 combinations each – aka the most combinations.

Lottery Drawing: Finally, drawings are conducted for the first four picks of the NBA Draft. The remaining non-playoff teams are then ordered based on their regular-season records, with the team with the worst record picking fifth, followed by the team with the next worst record, and so on.

Also, the NBA shares the footage of the lottery drawing after each draft. You can watch the 2023 procedure here.

Original 2024 NBA Draft Lottery Odds & Order

While we know how the NBA Draft Lottery shook out, it’s fun to take a look at where the odds were and where everyone ended up. Here are what the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery odds for the No. 1 overall pick were via Tankathon.

1. Detroit Pistons (14-68): 14% – Actual Pick: 5th
2. Washington Wizards: (15-67): 14% – Actual Pick: 2nd
3. Charlotte Hornets: (21-61): 13.3% – Actual Pick: 6th
4. Portland Trail Blazers: (21-61): 13.2% – Actual Pick: 7th
5. San Antonio Spurs (22-60): 10.5% – Actual Pick: 4th
6. Toronto Raptors (25-57): 9.0% (Spurs own pick, Top-6 protected) – Actual Pick: 8th
7. Memphis Grizzlies (27-55): 7.5% – Actual Pick: 9th
8. Utah Jazz (31-51): 6.0% (Thunder own pick, Top-10 protected) – Actual Pick: 10th
9. Brooklyn Nets (32-50): 4.5% (Rockets own pick) – Actual Pick: 3rd
10. Atlanta Hawks (36-46): 3.0% – Actual Pick: 1st
11. Chicago Bulls (39-43): 2.0% – Actual Pick: 11th
12. Houston Rockets (41-41): 1.5% (Thunder own pick) Actual Pick – 12th
13. Sacramento Kings (46-36): 0.8% – Actual Pick – 13th
14. Golden State Warriors (46-36): 0.7% (Blazers own pick, Top-4 protected) Actual Pick: 14th

2024 NBA Mock Draft

1. Atlanta Hawks – F/C Alexandre Sarr – Perth, France – 18 Years Old – 7’1, 218 lbs

Alexandre Sarr has a lot of similar traits to Victor Wembanyama. To be clear, that is not to say he’s anywhere near the prospect Wemby was – he isn’t – but the playing style and physical traits are similar. He’s over 7 feet tall and has the athleticism to do a little bit of everything on the court. Things could change as the weeks go by, but I think he goes No. 1 as of now.

The Hawks have Onyeka Okongwu and Clint Capela on the books for next year, but Sarr’s skillset is so unique that I don’t think they pass on him. Trading one of the other two big men could make a lot of sense for a Hawks team looking for new life.

2. Washington Wizards – PG Nikola Topic – Red Star, Serbia – 18 Years Old – 6’6, 201 lbs

Nikola Topic is a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. He can overpower smaller defenders and blow by bigger bodies. He struggles on the defensive end of the floor, but his offensive upside is fantastic. He can finish in traffic, he’s a great passer, and he’s a dangerous shooter. He feels like a lock to go somewhere within the top 5. Why not a Washington team with plenty of room to take on a high-upside project?

3. Houston Rockets – SF Zaccharie Risacher – JL Bourg, France – 18 Years Old – 6’9, 204 lbs

If the Hawks were the biggest winner, the Rockets are probably the second biggest by jumping up six spots to No. 3 overall (via the Nets pick). Houston has one of the most entertaining and talented young cores in the NBA, and Risacher would give them a bit of a unicorn to work with in terms of his skillset. He’s a typical three-and-D player that any team would want, and giving him to Ime Udoka to work with feels like it would be great for his development.

We should keep an eye on this pick as a potential trade piece, however. The Rockets appear adamant about returning to the playoffs sooner rather than later.

4. San Antonio Spurs – SF Matas Buzelis – G League – 19 Years Old – 6’11, 195 lbs

If Risacher doesn’t fall to the Spurs, Buzelis would be a very nice option for them. He has a similar skillset and can do a little bit of everything. The length the Spurs would have on the floor between him and Wemby could create a lot of problems for opposing teams. He is versatile on offense, though his ball handling could be more consistent. Defensively, he’s capable of guarding multiple positions. He won’t be a top option offensively early in his career, but his catch-and-shoot ability gives him quite the upside.

Plus, giving Gregg Popovich the chance to develop Buzelis seems like a great fit.

Matas Buzelis spoke with Bleacher Nation earlier this season …

Matas Buzelis’ Rise Began in Chicago, Where “Basketball is Like a Religion”

5. Detroit Pistons – C Donovan Clingan – UConn – 19 Years Old – 7’2, 265 lbs

Clingan seems like a safe pick for the Pistons here that can fortify their frontcourt. When you have nice prospect pieces in Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey to develop, going with a top-notch big who can protect the rim feels like a safe pick. He can step in right away and learn on the fly with a young core and give them a piece they don’t really have at the moment.

I know the Pistons still have a former lottery pick big man in Jalen Duren on the roster, but that isn’t a good enough reason to pass on Clingan.

6. Charlotte Hornets – G Reed Sheppard – Kentucky – 19 Years Old – 6’3, 187 lbs

Sheppard was a lethal three-point shooter at Kentucky, and he has some defensive upside. Charlotte has a lead guard in LaMelo Ball, but for as good as he’s been the reliability has been an issue. Drafting a player like Sheppard with his high ceiling will allow him to play and grow alongside Ball, but if Ball has to miss some time, Sheppard could get opportunities to be that lead guard.

7. Portland Trail Blazers – G Stephon Castle – UConn – 19 Years Old – 6’6, 190 lbs

Castle showed throughout the NCAA Tournament just how good he can be. He’s a matchup nightmare defensively for guards. He has very good ball-handling skills and can finish strong at the rim. While there are some questions about his jumper, there is enough there to instill confidence in his ability to become a reliable threat. There’s a lot to like about Castle as a prospect.

Portland needs help in a lot of places, and Castle’s well-rounded game gives them options for how they would like to use him. With that said, the Trail Blazers do have a pretty jam-packed backcourt with Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, and Anfernee Simons. They aren’t necessarily in a place where they should be picking for need, but they may have to lean that way with such a busy backcourt.

8. San Antonio Spurs (via TOR) – G Rob Dillingham – Kentucky – 19 Years Old – 6’3, 176 lbs

Dillingham can beat you in so many different ways on offense. He can get to the hoop, finish at the rim, find the open man, and get hot shooting the ball. He’s a versatile guard who showed special flashes at Kentucky but might need some development time in the NBA. He’s not an awful defender, but not particularly noteworthy on that end either. He has a very high ceiling and needs time to develop.

The Spurs can afford him that time and allow him to learn on the job alongside a talented young core. They also need a future guard to pair with Wemby!

9. Memphis Grizzlies – SF Cody Williams – Colorado – 19 Years Old – 6’8, 185 lbs

Brother of OKC’s Jalen Williams, Cody can also do a little bit of everything. Defensively, he can guard just about any position. Offensively, he’s dangerous in transition, a great finisher at the bucket, and a solid catch-and-shoot player.

He’s got a chance to make an immediate impact wherever he ends up. The Grizzlies have a backcourt they really like going forward in Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, and an explosive player on the wing like Williams would be an intriguing piece to add to their core.

10. Utah Jazz – Dalton Knecht – Tennessee – 22 Years Old – 6’6, 213 lbs

Knecht had a fantastic season with Tennessee and took the Vols farther than they’ve been able to go in the NCAA Tournament in recent history. He proved he can score in different ways, but his biggest asset is his shot-making.

Knecht shot just a tick under 40 percent from three on the year and nearly carried the Vols by Purdue in the Elite Eight with a 37-point performance. The Jazz appear ready to try and start winning games and building a bit around Lauri Markkanen, and while Knecht’s ceiling might not be as high as others, his floor does appear to be pretty high, which could make him a safe and smart building block in Utah.

11. Chicago Bulls – Ron Holland – G League – 18 Years Old – 6’8, 200 lbs

Holland would be a little bit of a project, but the traits are there and would be very tempting for the Bulls. He’s an explosive player who plays at 100 mph all the time. He’s a solid ball handler who can get to and score at the rim. He’s also a menace defensively. Holland might be raw and would certainly come with some growing pains, but with Zach LaVine likely on the way out, Holland could provide Chicago with some of the explosiveness and aggression that they would need.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder – F Tidjane Salaun – Cholet Basket, France – 18 Years Old – 6’9, 203 lbs

Salaun is going to be one of the younger prospects in the Draft. He’s developed the ability to score at all three levels, and at his height that’s an enticing trait for any NBA team. He’s shown the ability to create his own shot as well, which again at his size is a big plus. He has to fill out a bit and defensively he needs to make some strides, but he’s got many of the traits that a lottery team could fall in love with.

So if you’re OKC, why not take a shot on Salaun’s high ceiling? They’re armed with several draft picks, and if this one hits you’re adding a very skilled piece to an an already phenomenal young core.

13. Sacramento Kings – SG Ja’Kobe Walter – Baylor – 19 Years Old – 6’5, 180 lbs

Walter is a high-level shotmaker and has the ability to be a dangerous threat offensively. Inconsistency plagued him at Baylor at times, but that’s an issue a lot of teenagers in college battle through. Walter has a very high ceiling and could give the Kings a high-ceiling and dangerous shooter that could replace Malik Monk if he does indeed leave in free agency.

14. Portland Trail Blazers (via GSW) – Kyle Filipowski – C – Dule – 20 Years Old – 7’0, 230 lbs

Portland has a center already in DeAndre Ayton, but Filipowski’s skillset is completely different. He’s a big man with range and showed offensive versatility during his time at Duke. He’d be able to play as a center, but also fill in as a bit of a stretch four if Portland wanted to play him alongside Ayton thanks to his ability to shoot. He shot over 50 percent from the field and nearly 35 percent from three in his final year at Duke.

15. Miami Heat: Jared McCain – Duke – 19 Years Old – 6’3, 197 lbs

16. Philadelphia 76ers: F Tristan da Silva – Colorado – 22 Years Old – 6’9, 229 lbs

17. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers): C Yves Missi – Baylor – 19 Years Old – 6’10, 235 lbs

18. Orlando Magic: PG Devin Carter – Providence – 21 Years Old – 6’3, 195 lbs

19. Toronto Raptors (via Pacers): G Isaiah Collier – USC – 19 Years Old – 6’4, 205 lbs

20. Cleveland Cavaliers: F Bobi Klintman – Cairns, Sweden – 20 Years Old – 6’10, 225 lbs

21. New Orleans Pelicans (via Bucks): PG Tyler Kolek – Marquette – 23 Years Old – 6’3, 195 lbs

22. Phoenix Suns: G Carlton Carrington – Pittsburgh – 18 Years Old – 6’5, 190 lbs

23. Milwaukee Bucks (via Pelicans): C Kel’el Ware – Indiana – 20 Years Old – 7’0, 223 lbs

24. New York Knicks (via Mavericks): C Zach Edey – Purdue – 22 years Old – 7’4, 300 lbs

25. New York Knicks: G Jaylon Tyson – California – 21 Years Old – 6’6, 218 lbs

26. Washington Wizards (via Clippers): G Hunter Sallis – Wake Forest – 21 Years Old – 6’4, 179 lbs

27. Minnesota Timberwolves: G Terrence Shannon Jr – Illinois – 23 Years Old – 6’6, 220 lbs

28. Denver Nuggets: G Johnny Furphy – Kansas – 19 Years Old – 6’9, 202 lbs

29. Utah Jazz (via Thunder): F DaRon Holmes II – Dayton – 21 Years Old – 6’10, 221 lbs

30. Boston Celtics: G Kyshawn George – Miami – 20 Years Old – 6’8, 205 lbs