NEWSLETTER
The Cubs probably SHOULD have a 2-0 lead going into tonight’s game against the Brewers … but then I guess they could just as easily be down 0-2. Perspective. As it stands, they’ve split the first two games of this must-win series against Milwaukee, which means they have to win out for the set to be considered a success.
Fortunately, any pressure on the offense should be slightly relieved tonight with Justin Steele on the mound. He’s been lights out all season and the Brewers offense has struggled against lefties all year. Here’s a look at the Cubs lineup for the third of four games at American Family Field.
Chicago Cubs Lineup:
- Mike Tauchman, DH
- Nico Hoerner, 2B
- Seiya Suzuki, RF
- Ian Happ, LF
- Dansby Swanson, SS
- Cody Bellinger, CF
- Chris Morel, 3B
- Jared Young, 1B
- Tucker Barnhart, C
Today’s Brewers starter, Adrian Houser, has significant lefty/righty splits both this season, and for his career:
vsLHH: .290/.376/.459 (.361 wOBA)
vsRHH: .223/.291/.330 (.274 wOBA)
And yet Cody Bellinger (riding a ten-game hitting streak) is batting down in the Cubs lineup, while the scuffling Seiya Suzuki is batting third. Weird! I think David Ross really likes alternating lefties and righties. But then again, the right-handed Suzuki is batting right after the right-handed Hoerner, even though he could have snuck in the switch-hitting Ian Happ between them. I don’t know. These are small issues that probably have explanations I just can’t see from the outside.
In any case, the Cubs lineup has another two lefties in there by way of Jared Young at first base and Tucker Barnhart behind the plate. That last bit is particularly interesting to me, because Barnhart had become something close to the personal catcher of Marcus Stroman, who’s starting tomorrow (in an early game following a night game, which means Barnhart likely won’t be available). I would argue that preserving the Stroman-Barnhart battery is more important than whatever offensive advantage you think you might gain by starting Barnhart (a lefty) over Miguel Amaya or Yan Gomes tonight. After all, he’s batting ninth … what is he going to get against Adrian Houser … three plate appearances? Maybe? But it’s not my show! I just critique it.
Anyway, must-win game for the Cubs tonight. Here’s hoping Ross pulled all the right levers!
Milwaukee Brewers Lineup:
- Christian Yelich, LF
- William Contreras, C
- Willy Adames, SS
- Owen Miller, 1B
- Jahmai Jones, DH
- Blake Perkins, RF
- Brian Anderson, 3B
- Andruw Monasterio, 2B
- Joey Wiemer, CF
Pitching Matchup:
Chicago Cubs: Justin Steele, LHP
Justin Steele is a man on a mission. Since getting touched up against the Reds, Steele has allowed just 3 earned runs over his last 20.1 IP with 19 strikeouts against three walks. He remains the 7th most valuable starter by fWAR in MLB and is the league’s current ERA leader (2.43). He’s still a couple of starts behind the other best pitchers in baseball because of his brief IL stint (though he is still a qualified pitcher), but besides total innings, he is right there in almost every important category. My personal favorites? Steele is leading the league in average exit velocity allowed (86.1 MPG) and hard% (30.7) and is third in barrel rate (5.4%), behind only Bryce Elder and Steele’s teammate Marcus Stroman. That’s just nuts. For what it’s worth, the Brewers (81 wRC+) are the second worst offense in baseball against left-handed pitching this season.
Milwaukee Brewers: Adrian Houser, RHP
Houser has moved in and out of the Brewers bullpen this year, but has generally delivered when is in the rotation (three quality starts in eight tries). Most recently, he kept the Mets to just two runs (two solo homers) over 6.0 IP in New York.
Houser is not going to strike many batters out tonight (sub-15K% this year), but he won’t walk many either, and the groundball rate is pretty high (50%). Based on the quality of the contact he’s allowing, Houser isn’t particularly difficult to square up, but any actual production is predicated on elevation. If the Cubs lineup can find a way to get the ball off the ground tonight, they’ll be fine. If not, they’ll be at the mercy of the BABIP Gods. And they haven’t been too kind this year.
Broadcast Info:
Chicago Cubs (39-45) vs Milwaukee Brewers (46-40) at 7:10 pm CT on MARQ, 670 The Score
