NEWSLETTER
191 plate appearances. Two doubles.
That, my friends, is the ENTIRE extent of extra-base hit damage that left-handed hitters have done to Luke Little in the minor leagues.
The Cubs are calling up Little today, their 2020 fourth-round pick, and if there’s one stat that explains why, I think that’s it. The Cubs have survived this season almost entirely without a left-handed reliever in their bullpen, but today, they’ll change that with a southpaw that has held LHH to a .154/.340/.154 line this year.
From the moment Little was drafted — a JuCo viral sensation (and no, please don’t think he’s coming up throwing 105) — it was pretty clear that a move to the bullpen was more of an inevitability than a possibility. The Cubs liked the long outings that piggybacking and starting afforded Little, a chance to see more hitters, to throw more changeups, to have more reps trying to locate fastballs. But this season, with his Rule 5 eligibility pending this offseason, the switch was made when the calendar turned to May. And what followed was a level of dominance that has deserved a Major League cup of coffee: 48 IP, 30 H, 2.63 ERA, 35 BB, 87 K. 40.8% of hitters he’s faced as a short-inning reliever have struck out.
If there’s one ironic defining characteristic of Little, 23, it’s certainly his massive size. While we can believe the 6-foot-8 listing on his report, we’ll choose to bet the over on the listed weight of 220 pounds. Little is a large human who does a great job at utilizing that size to be an imposing presence on the mound.
While Little’s fastball doesn’t metrically have a lot of ride, it has an exploding quality into hitters because of the way he delivers the baseball. Little has a very slow and deliberate start to his delivery, really loading up on the left side of his body, before using a really good leg block and plus arm speed to create velocity. He gets a bit of deception from some cross-fire in his delivery, and his release point is pretty unique, probably moreso for the horizontal angle he’s attacking from than for his height, as he fires from a 3/4 arm slot. Hitters end up behind and underneath the 95-97 mph four-seam fastball, even if he’s only achieving a below-average amount of 11-14″ of induced vertical break on the pitch. I trust the swings.
It’s been interesting that the Cubs haven’t made any major changes to Little’s mechanics during his time in the organization — minor ones, to be sure — given that was seen as a weakness of his during the draft process. Instead, the team has really focused on the slider, and the attention has paid off. We’re seeing the best version of that pitch this season, and it’s one that can achieve up to about 18-19″ of horizontal sweep. This pitch has created a meaningful floor for Little’s career, because if he’s locating it even within a stone’s throw of the strike zone, there just aren’t lefties that will touch it.
In addition to those pitches, we’re also likely to see a changeup and sinker from Little in the big leagues. The sinker and four-seam bleed together a good amount, with just about five inches of horizontal movement, and maybe a couple of vertical break, separating the two. The big league staff will probably work with him in Spring Training next year at maximizing those differences (fwiw, I think some attention has already been spent on getting relative cut added to his four-seam). It’s noteworthy that Little was able to sustain a groundball rate north of 50% at all levels until Triple-A, where the mark has been at just 40.9%. I do think in time he’ll get that back to above-average territory.
The changeup usually comes in around 90 mph, with horizontal characteristics tunneling his fastball pretty well. The best versions of the pitch get some late diving action, and I think the feel is advanced to trust even on a big league mound.
The key for Little’s success in the Majors, both short- and long-term, is going to be his strike-throwing. He’s susceptible to at-bats that are just non-competitive from the start, the kinds of four-pitch walks or early-count HBPs that don’t make managers happy. He’ll have to manage his adrenaline in these first few September outings to earn trust in leverage, but Luke has a laid-back demeanor that I think will help not allow the moment to become too big for him.
Internally, it became clear at some point this summer that Little was pitching his way onto the 40-man roster this winter. Kudos to Luke for not letting that be enough, for keeping his foot on the gas pedal, and earning this big league opportunity. I’m excited to see if he can fill a weakness for this team.
