NEWSLETTER
We all knew the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes would be a wild ride this winter, but this roller coaster has been certifiably off the rails since mid-August: The multiple injuries, the elbow surgery, the fact that he won’t pitch next season (but will DH), the Red Sox popping up unexpectedly, the Dodgers’ leading odds, the Rangers jumping in, the Mets refusing to sit out, and so on.
But while most of the news has seemingly pushed our dream of the Chicago Cubs landing Ohtani further away from reality, today’s update is the quite opposite. In fact, it’s one of the most direct Shohei Ohtani-Cubs rumors we’ve had yet!
Shohei Ohtani to … the Cubs?
According to USA Today, “several GMs say” the Chicago Cubs are the sleeper pick to sign Shohei Ohtani this offseason (even as the Dodgers remain the “overwhelming favorites”).
Why the sudden Cubs mention? Well for one, it’s not ACTUALLY all that sudden. In fact, before his arm injury, the Cubs were often mentioned as one of the possible landing spots for Shohei Ohtani. And we all know by now that they were one of the only non-West Coast teams to make his final list back when he first came over to the states.
But more acutely, it seems Marcus Stroman’s sudden and unexpected opt-out may have really opened the door for the Cubs to add more salary in 2024 (ditto Jason Heyward’s contract finally coming off the books).
We’ll do a more complete accounting of the Cubs finances soon enough, but Stroman’s opt-out saved the Cubs $21M in 2024 commitments, while Heyward’s expiration ($21.2M in 2023 dollars) helps make up for $37M in raises otherwise due to Dansby Swanson (+$12M), Ian Happ (+$9M), Nico Hoerner (+$9M), Jameson Taillon (+$4M), and Seiya Suzuki (+$3M).
Shohei Ohtani’s Market, Timeline, and Asking Price
Now, while the Dodgers (as favorites) and Cubs (as sleepers) are the two teams called out first and specifically, they aren’t the only clubs mentioned. The Red Sox get another shout as a team expected to be “heavily considered,” while each of the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners, Padres, Rangers, and Angels get a passing mention.
In terms of timeline, it seems likely that Ohtani will make it through November unsigned, but could be angling for a December conclusion: “…look for the Ohtani sweepstakes to be going full throttle in December.” And personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if this winds up being a Winter Meetings play. This sort of free agent opportunity might necessarily require team leaders (GMs/Pres) and owners be in the same place at the same time, ready to act quickly/crazily to get the No. 1 free agent of all-time to their club.
And in terms of asking price, I think we’re finally getting a range identified. While Ohtani WAS barreling towards $600M before the second elbow surgery, that no longer seems to be the expectation. USA Today says he will eclipse $400M but “not necessarily $500M” which feels right to me. And for what it’s worth, Tim Britton estimated 12 years and $520M using historical comps, while Keith Law seemed to land right around that $500M mark, as well.
I’m not going to get too deep into the potential fit for the Chicago Cubs, because that feels like a silly thing to do. Shohei Ohtani is one of the most talented baseball players of all-time. Any team would be better with him, whether he’s pitching or not. The Cubs, specifically, have no dedicated DH and a total lack of left-handed power (even more so without Cody Bellinger).
They also have Kyle Hendricks under control for just one more season, meaning that if/when Ohtani returns as a pitcher for 2025, there’s likely to be a hole in the rotation … not that you need a “hole” in your rotation to justify adding Shohei Ohtani (see? this is why doing the “fit” thing is dumb).
Organizationally, the Cubs have more money coming off the books after 2024 and are on the upswing in a mediocre division. Getting Ohtani makes PLENTY of sense from pretty much any possible angle. I really, really hope they do it. And therefore I really hope these GMs are right.
