NEWSLETTER
No burying the lede here: MLBTR is projecting 12 years and $264 million for free agent Cody Bellinger.
Because of the Craig Counsell news, I feel immune to being “stunned” for a least a week or two, but that number certainly took me aback.
That comes against the backdrop, you’ll recall, of much more modest recent projections that had Bellinger in the six year and $160+ million range. Given the risks presented by his abysmal 2021-22 stretch and the batted ball metrics from this past season, that sounded about right to me. That’s a range where the Cubs should definitely be willing to go for a guy who can provide left-handed power, an improved discipline at the plate, a great glove at either of center field or first base, and who is only 28.
But 12 years and $264 million? First of all, that’s simply not the length of deal a Jed-Hoyer-led front office will ever do for anyone not named Shohei Ohtani. Going to even seven years on Dansby Swanson was something of a stretch. The Cubs under Hoyer have shown a willingness – a preference – to push up the annual value of a deal so they can hold down the length. They are, flat out, not going to go to 10+ years on Bellinger. It just won’t happen, so if that’s where his market goes, you should brace yourself now.
For another thing, budgets are real. We hate it as fans, but it’s the reality of the confines in which a front office must operate, so we DO have to evaluate contract value as outsiders. To me, 12/$264 million is just outrageously, wildly, unbelievably too much for Cody Bellinger. I like Bellinger a great deal, and do want him back. A lot. And a $22 million AAV is pretty darn great. It’s the kind of deal that we saw popularized last offseason – super long-term, much lower AAV. But to lock that much onto your books, virtually assuring yourself of AT LEAST $100 million in dead-ish money for a guy approaching 40 years old, is crazy to me. That’s especially true when the track record for center fielders staying plus defensively in center field after age 30 is very limited (and the Cubs will eventually want Pete Crow-Armstrong there anyway).
Is this really where Bellinger’s market will go?
Well, here’s what I say every year. For the tip top free agents, take whatever you think a reasonable deal is, and then add a year to it, and add a few million to the AAV. That’s maybe where it lands. So in Bellinger’s case, by this thinking, you would see him get seven-ish years and around $200 million. Even that strikes me as just too much, in terms of resource allocation, but it’s not outrageous.
But the thing is, last offseason kinda broke this model, at least for some guys (it was spot on for Dansby Swanson, though!). Some guys wound up getting contracts that distorted the structure of what we expect, and I think that’s what MLBTR is getting at with this deal. Like I said, a $22 million AAV for Bellinger would be awesome. Heck, it’s downright too low! But if and Scott Boras want to do what Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner and Aaron Judge did (and Bryce Harper long before them), then maybe this is the route they take. Get the biggest guarantee possible, and let the team spread it over however many years they think MLB will permit without crying foul about skirting the luxury tax rules.
In the end, my gut still says this is not what ends up happening with Bellinger’s market, but we might have to wait a long time to find out.
Meanwhile, you can check out the full list of MLBTR’s free agent rankings and contract projections here.
You will probably feel like the projections are on the very high end for a whole lot of players. Blake Snell getting $200 million. Jordan Montgomery getting $150 million. Matt Chapman getting $150 million. Jeimer Candelario getting $70(!) million. Even some of the lesser/shorter-term deals just seem jarringly high.
But there are some that strike me as pretty reasonable/plausible. Shohei Ohtani, for example, getting 12 years and $528 million would not shock me. Yoshinobu Yamamoto getting nine years would be a surprise, but the total guarantee of $225 million doesn’t seem too outrageous. Four years and $82 million for Eduardo Rodriguez seems like a potential value. Shota Imanaga getting five years and $85 million would also not be a surprise, given how well he compares to Kodai Senga and how well he translated this season. Note, though, that Yamamoto and Imanaga would also cost a posting fee on top of their salaries (though the posting fee does not count against the luxury tax … ).
