NEWSLETTER
“He’s one of the most valuable position players that I believe is going to be traded this offseason.”
That’s Jon Morosi talking about Tampa Bay Rays third baseman (and former Cubs prospect) Isaac Paredes, who could be on the move this winter.
And given (1) the Cubs vacancy at third base, (2) their need to add pop (Paredes hit 51 homers over the last two seasons), (3) the weak class of free agent position players, (4) the existing Cubs-Rays trade rumors, and (5) the Cubs apparent willingness to leverage the trade market this offseason … I’d say that has my attention!
After all, Paredes, 24, is young, under control through 2027 and just hit .250/.352/.488 (137 wRC+) with 31 HRs and 98 RBI this season!
But wait a minute … why would the Rays want to trade a pre-arb slugger coming off a 4.3 WAR season? Because there are a bunch of glaring red flags, that’s why.
Take a look at his relative statcast batted ball metrics:
Yiiiiiiiiikes.
Last season, Isaac Paredes had an 86.9 MPH average exit velo (13th lowest in MLB), a 5.9 barrel% (32nd lowest), and a 28.3 hard% (10th lowest), all among the very worst in baseball. In addition, the 20-point gap between his actual batting average and expected batting average was the 14th highest in baseball. Even worse, the .119(!) point gap between his actual SLG and xSLG was the second highest in MLB. He’s only one of two players with more than .100 points of SLG luck. That’s insane.
Indeed, he leads the league in “extra” home runs (versus expected):
And this is far from a favorable spray chart …
Now, I don’t want to go overboard here. While there are red flags, Isaac Paredes, 24, is still very young, walks more than 10% of the time, strikeouts at an 18% clip, and probably has plenty of upside remaining. But if the cost to acquire him is based on his “results” in 2023, the Cubs need to stay far away, because that’s probably not the guy you’re going to get.
If, by contrast, the Rays are being more reasonable and sober about the underlying metrics and/or want to attach him to Glasnow to rid themselves of even more money or something, then sure! I’d be very interested. Because as of now, he’d be the best third base option the Cubs have (and they’d have him for a bit while longer). He’s just one of those guys that requires you to read the fine print!
