NEWSLETTER
I’m trying to remember the last time so many people simultaneously sent me a video clip that wasn’t some hilarious blooper.
Yes, I have seen this. Sure, you should see it, too. No, I’m not freaking out just yet.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi says, much to the surprise of everyone who is following this closely, that the Atlanta Braves are not eliminated from the Shohei Ohtani race. Moreover, he pegs them as having as good of a chance as any of the non-Dodger teams to actually land him:
So, Ohtani is as likely for the Braves as he is for the Cubs and Blue Jays, for example.
Immediate gut reaction? I’m dubious. Something just feels off about it, not the least of which is you’re talking about a team that would, by doing this, put themselves over the second or third tier of the luxury tax for the next half-decade (despite being a team attached to an imploding Bally RSN). There’s also the fact that not a single report late last week, as the suitors list was being winnowed down, had the Atlanta Braves as still in the mix. It was Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays, maybe Angels, and maybe Giants. Every single report. They could all have been wrong – this is an incredibly secretive process after all – but there’s certainly a weight of the evidence situation going on.
Still … maybe? Maybe the Braves are trying to sneak on in?
I mean, I certainly get the allure of playing the next several years with the Braves, given all they have solidly in place. The Braves of course would want Ohtani. Everyone wants Ohtani. Also, the Braves REALLY need impact pitching after this season, so the timeline fits there, too. They are also owned by a media operation, so there could be some extra financial incentive there to get a deal done. Also also, we can’t ignore that this is a major-market club that dominates an entire region of the country. Lotta also’s. I won’t dismiss this entirely out of hand.
I guess I just wonder if there’s any worry – by Braves ownership or by Ohtani’s camp – that, for as well set up as the Braves are at the big league level over the next three or four years (when considering contracts and player ages, I think that’s when it starts to get really dodgy really fast), the longer-term doesn’t necessarily look all that great to me. The farm system is cooked. The pitching is going to be an issue in a few years. And if a handful of the controlled position players fall off as they approach or pass 30 years old – which happens – they could actually wind up one of those teams that is a bit stuck (and that’s BEFORE you consider adding $50 million in AAV from Ohtani, himself).
So Ohtani and the Braves could be marrying up for a few years of incredible, and then seven to ten years of really rough waters. Don’t get me wrong: I’m not saying the Braves aren’t very good, and won’t be very good for the next several years. They are, and they almost certainly will be. I’m just saying, it’s not like you can assume a group of players all age perfectly together just because they signed team-friendly extensions when they were younger.
Don’t discount the possibility that there’s a little leverage play going on here, by the way. For all we know, Ohtani has a strong preference to go to another team (we all know who we suspect), and this is his camp looking to just get that final year tacked on or whatever. There are only so many NL clubs that you could try to pump up as a realistic suitor and landing spot. Money may not be the reason Ohtani chooses the team that he chooses, but there’s no reason not to try to get the best offer from the team you want to go to anyway.
