The 2023 Baseball Winter Meetings are underway in Nashville, Tennessee, and I like to do periodic check-ins like this throughout the week if the thrum of individual deals and rumors allows it. So far, we’ve just seen the one trade last night between the Mariners and Braves, but more is undoubtedly coming.
Among the latest rumor bits (Ohtani-Braves talk here, Yamamoto here) making the rounds so far today …
Everyone wondered what was coming next after the Mariners unloaded salary on the Braves in that deal last night, and Ken Rosenthal reports that it could be renewed talks with the Rays:
“Earlier this offseason, the Mariners inquired about both Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes, according to sources briefed on the discussions. At the time, they were not positioned to advance those conversations, citing financial restraints. Perhaps those talks can accelerate now.”
Paredes is a plausible fit with the Cubs, the org that first signed him, but I think the more interesting bit here is to wonder whether the Rays could shave enough non-Tyler-Glasnow salary to be able to tell his suitors with a straight face that they don’t HAVE to trade him. Recall, Glasnow is making $25 million in 2024, and if the Rays keep the band together (which could cost upwards of $125 million in 2024), they would absolutely obliterate their previous record payroll ($83 million). So to keep Glasnow, realistically, they’d have to shave $20 to $30 million in other ways, and that’s without making any significant additions. Trading Arozarena and Paredes might save about $13 million. If they could also find a taker for Manuel Margo ($10 million), then maybe, MAYBE they could claim to trade partners that they don’t have to move Glasnow.
To be clear: I would much, much rather the Rays don’t get themselves into that position, and instead feel like they have no choice but to take whatever they can get for Glasnow to get his $25 million off the books. Because I want the Cubs to acquire Glasnow for a very reasonable return.
Not that the Cubs are the only team in on Glasnow, as Jon Heyman is just the latest to say that there is a “ton” of trade interest there around the league. As of this weekend, Sahadev Sharma reported no deal was close, even as he said talks between the Cubs and Rays were happening. Bruce Levine said he does think, ultimately, that Glasnow to the Cubs will happen, though:
The other starters who could be traded this week include Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, and Shane Bieber, the latter of whom is also a possibility for the Cubs.
Another guy who is a possibility for the Cubs: Rhys Hoskins. I keep meaning to say more about the first baseman coming back from a 2023 lost to an ACL tear, but other things keep sucking up the oxygen. If Hoskins is into a one-year pillow deal a la Cody Bellinger last year, the Cubs are a perfect fit (regardless of what happens with Shohei Ohtani). I would expect some Cubs-Hoskins rumors – maybe not a signing, but rumors – to percolate this week.
A couple other wholly speculative names for the Cubs this week thanks to their connection to new manager Craig Counsell: lefty reliever Brent Suter (dominated in Colorado this past year) and rehabbing starter Brandon Woodruff (he’ll miss most or all of 2024 following shoulder surgery, but Cubs might want to try to rehab him this year to get an option year for 2025).
Where are the Shota Imanaga rumors? I suppose I understand why there’s not a lot of talk there, given the presence of Yoshinobu Yamamoto atop the starting pitcher free agent market, but Imanaga is no slouch of an option. I still really like him for the Cubs, depending on how everything else shakes out. Don’t forget, in an ideal world, the Cubs would add two starting pitchers this offseason, not just one.
These are certainly words:
I think that’s supposed to mean that the Yankees are no longer exclusively focused on trying to land Juan Soto after talks with the Padres broke down. If the Padres dug in their heels on their reported ask, I can see why the Yankees legitimately would look elsewhere, even if they are pretty clearly desperate to add Soto. The reported ask, by the way, was “pitcher Michael King, pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, and as many as four or five other prospects like Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito,” PLUS taking on Trent Grisham’s contract. Just an absolutely enormous, egregiously silly ask from the Padres if true.
King, 28, has been a stud of a reliever for the Yankees, and after a conversion to the rotation late in the year, he showed that he MIGHT actually be a monster of a starter. The only rub is that he’s got two more arbitration years before free agency, so you’re not getting him for long, but two cheap years of a guy who might be a front-of-the-rotation stud. Then you have Thorpe, who is basically the Yankees’ version of Cade Horton and might be one of the better pitching prospects in baseball. And then ALSO four or five more legit prospects? And eating Grisham’s salary? What? Ridiculous. I, too, would’ve called the Padres’ bluff that they can afford to keep Soto’s salary on the books into midseason. The Cubs equivalent here might be something like Christopher Morel, Cade Horton, Javier Assad, and two or three top-30 system prospects. Juan Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball, but one year of him at $33 million ain’t getting you a package CLOSE to that level. Get real.
(All that said, I would still be shocked if the Padres ACTUALLY enter the season with Soto on the roster, because they might win too many games in the first half to be able to trade Soto at midseason – you just don’t want to put yourself in that position. So they’re going to trade him now, and apparently they’re going to squeeze the Yankees for every last drop. Unless some other team jumps in … )
This is uncommonly candid talk from an MLB exec:
So that’s Mozeliak not only saying the Cardinals aren’t really going to add on the positional said (he didn’t even dance around it and leave doors open), but he SPECIFICALLY said the Cardinals are talking trades on outfielder Tyler O’Neill, and then saying the Cardinals aren’t doing much on the positional side EXCEPT seeing what they could get in trade for some of their guys. That’s … I mean, you really don’t see executives saying that stuff out loud. So you can safely assume the Cardinals have had some DEEP trade discussions already – certainly on O’Neill, but probably also on Dylan Carlson or Brendan Donovan, among others.
Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Jackson Chourio extension with the Brewers is officially official, so you can bank on him taking over in center field on Opening Day. There are likely to be some bumps along the way for the youngster – he doesn’t even turn 20 until March – but the talent is there for him to be a markedly positive contributor as soon as this season. Watch him play for just a few minutes and you’ll see that the tools are LOUD. We will learn to hate him over the next eight to ten years.
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