NEWSLETTER
At the close of the Winter Meetings, Chicago Cubs President Jed Hoyer spoke about the things that did and did not happen this week, and how the Cubs proceed with their offseason – and longer-term future – from here.
I thought I’d share some of his quotes that stood out to me most, followed by a comment of my own.
The Value of the Winter Meetings This Week
“I definitely feel like it was a worthwhile Meetings,” Hoyer said, per MLB.com. “I think that it forces conversations. You’re up late, talking to people — I think that’s really valuable. I do think in some ways these Meetings are different than they used to be. You don’t see many people in person. You do most stuff on the phone.
“But it does force some action, and I think that we definitely leave here with a lot more information about things we think we might be able to accomplish than when we got here, which was kind of the goal.”
Comment: Obviously the meetings aren’t what they used to be, and we saw very little activity across baseball this week. But it probably still matters that every executive for every team and every agent for every player KNOWS that this week was a time to set aside everything else and talk turkey. That doesn’t mean deals get across the finish line – especially when major names are holding things up – but it does mean you probably get more done in laying foundations than you would without a dedicated week for “the Winter Meetings.”
Landing or Not Landing the Biggest Names
“As I’ve said a lot of times over the years, winning the offseason is probably more curse than blessing,” Hoyer said, per The Athletic. “Cody Bellinger wasn’t exactly a move that people were lauding tremendously last year, and it was probably one of the best free-agent signings on the market.
“You just don’t know where the best deals are going to come from. Certainly, there are immensely talented players on the market, but I think if you go in thinking it’s one of those guys or bust, you can make some really bad long-term decisions.”
Comment: You don’t have to stretch too far to find examples of teams that “won the offseason” and went on to have crummy years and muddied up long-term futures. But that’s not necessarily because being seen as having a strong offseason, itself, CAUSES a bad outcome. It’s still good to, you know, make good moves. It’s just that it’s often really hard to tell for certain how certain moves are going to play out in the year(s) ahead – that’s why baseball has always been about probabilities. So whether the names are big or small, you just have to get them right more often than you get them wrong.
Justifying the Craig Counsell Hire This Offseason
“I think I sold (Counsell) on where the organization is going,” Hoyer said, per Marquee. “This wasn’t a referendum on ‘24 necessarily, but where we are as a franchise, or organization, this moment in time. I don’t feel any sort of need to make some big splash to justify that. Certainly, I have no doubt over the next few years we’ll be aggressive. If that’s this year, great. If that’s in the future years, again, I don’t feel like we have to do it because of that.”
Comment: Hoyer has been resistant to the idea that the Cubs have to push in MORE aggressively for 2024 after adding Counsell to the largest managerial deal in baseball history. He’s not wrong that it doesn’t all have to be about 2024, and he’s definitely not wrong that a “splash” is not the point. But you add Counsell only if you think he can help you win more games in 2024, right? So why wouldn’t you have a pretty immediate focus on improving the team to be all the more competitive right away? Otherwise, you’re kind of wasting a pricey year of the Counsell addition.
A Singular Moment Versus a Window of Moments
“Hopefully, we have this moment for a few years where we have young players available and available dollars,” Hoyer said, per The Athletic. “I don’t want to look at this as one singular moment or if we don’t capitalize on this one moment.
“I think there’s a little bit of a window with that in some ways. Maybe we’re in a position over the next couple years where these guys come up, they perform, we realize which guys we can count on long term, and that may actually free us up a little bit at that point. I don’t want to look at it as this (one) moment.”
Comment: I’m so tired of hearing about windows for competitiveness, but I don’t think that’s what Hoyer is referencing here (i.e., where you stink for years to build up for a finite period of competitiveness, and then tear down and start again – I’m tired of that). Instead, I think Hoyer is talking about the window of time that the Cubs have to make moves to improve the team and stay competitive for more than a one or two-year push. In other words, just because the Cubs HAVE a lot of financial and prospect currency available to be deployed right now, it would be nice if they had that kind of flexibility for years to come, rather than using it all up in a single offseason. So you try to balance really improving the team for 2024, but also extending the life of this flexibility.
