NEWSLETTER
In case you missed the unexpected news out of Boston over the weekend, the Red Sox are reportedly tightening their belts, at least in their messaging to players/agents: “According to a baseball source,” writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com, “the Red Sox have told at least one free agent target that they need to shed more payroll before pursuing him as aggressively as they want to.”
If accurate, that’s a pretty surprising development for the Red Sox, whose projected payroll sits around just $200M (and whose TV deal is not at risk like some other teams). That said, they did just shed salary in the Chris Sale trade and reportedly had a mandated sub-luxury-tax budget of $225M last season. And generally speaking, I trust Cotillo on Red Sox matters, so … well, there it is.
To that end, and considering the potential cost savings (1-year, $16M remaining), Cotillo theorizes that closer Kenley Jansen could be on the trade block. And I wanted to explore that in connection to the Chicago Cubs, who could maybe be a fit, what with their need for stability and impact in the bullpen.
Kenley Jansen – General Fit with Cubs
Given the Cubs needs at the back of the bullpen, their apparent willingness to spend short-term dollars, their desire to compete in 2024, and their familiarity with Boston’s new chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow (who just left Chicago for Boston this winter), you could imagine – in theory – a deal coming together.
Sure, I’d be a little nervous dealing with Breslow, who knows the Cubs’ farm system as intimately as any non-Cubs executive in baseball right now. But I don’t know that he’s going to have any secret knowledge that the Cubs don’t already have. Indeed, the recent relationship could also help facilitate negotiations. That sort of thing happens all the time, especially because it’s possible he and the remaining Cubs execs may already know the players upon whom they disagreed – players the Cubs are OK to part with, but whom Breslow would really want.
It’s worth noting, I suppose, that Breslow and the Red Sox, while open to trades, are still reportedly seeking starting pitching. That doesn’t really make sense for the Cubs in a deal for Jansen (I don’t see the Cubs giving up a sure-thing young starter for a reliever at $16 million for one season), but maybe the Sox’s cost savings in a Jansen deal could be put towards another starter.
The better question for today is do we actually WANT the Cubs to trade for Kenley Jansen, 36, who isn’t the guy he was all those years ago with the Dodgers?
Is Kenley Jansen Still Good?
On the whole, Kenley Jansen had a solid 2023 campaign.
He was far from dominant (3.63 ERA) and didn’t throw a ton of innings (44.2 IP), but he had a 27.7% strikeout rate, a 9.0% walk rate, a .237 average against, a 6.8 barrel%, and a tiny 35.9 hard%. He also saved 29 games with just 4 blown saves. You also have to remember that there’s always league and ballpark context in the numbers – his ERA was 20% better than league average by ERA-, and his FIP, which more or less matched the ERA, was 15% better than league average by FIP-.
And while that inning total leaves a lot to be desired, his only trip to the IL was for COVID-19 in September. I’m guessing the timing of his sickness and the Red Sox’s record is why he threw just 2.0 innings total in September. No point in ramping your expensive 35-year-old closer back up for a handful of meaningless games at the end of the season.
If that’s the case, I can see Jansen appealing to the Cubs. Even if he wasn’t targeted as THE closer, he’d be a valuable and experienced late-inning reliever to add to the mix. I’d also think that Adbert Alzolay could learn a thing or two from Jansen, who’s been around and good as long as any active reliever in MLB. And I mean that both generally, in terms of soft skills/preparation/training/rest/etc., and specifically — there’s some significant overlap in pitch mix, as both like to go cutter-sinker-slider.
What About Aging? Acquisiton Cost, etc?
Jansen’s age and potential acquisition cost can’t be ignored, but there are some pretty easy retorts. For one, I think Jansen’s overall results last season still speak for themselves. But for another, his fastball velocity actually ticked UP last season:
Cutter: 94.5 MPH (93.1 MPH career average)
Sinker: 95.5 MPH (93.9 MPH career average)
Slider: 84.3 MPH (82.6 MPH career average)
So he’s probably feeling pretty good.
And if the Red Sox are really looking to shed additional payroll, the Cubs might be able to pry him away for a smaller relative return. Though, again, the risk of that seemingly-small return turning into something unexpectedly greater could be elevated if Craig Breslow is the one doing the picking.
But the Cubs could use Kenley Jansen’s velocity and swing-and-miss at the back of their bullpen. That’s just a fact. And we saw first hand how an inexperienced, low-ceiling, shallow bullpen can tank a season just last year.
Projections and Splits
Last stop: I have to mention Kenley Jansen’s ZiPS projections, which aren’t particularly strong:
But maybe, if he’s out of the closer’s role and deployed more thoughtfully into favorable matchups, Kenley Jansen can help maintain the results delivered last season. That should be one of new Cubs manager Craig Counsell’s better strengths, after all.
Indeed, Jansen was particularly good against lefties last season, holding them to a .198/.270/.346 (.266 wOBA) slash line with a 28.1% strikeout rate in near-equal duty against righties. The Cubs don’t have a sure-fire lefty in their bullpen as of today, so maybe another righty that handles lefties well could be particularly useful. Clearly, the cutter still plays.
So all together, I think Jansen would be a really interesting target for the Cubs, one who could help at the back-end of the bullpen (both on the field, and in leadership/experience) in a season the Cubs hope to be competitive. Whether or not that turns into an actual deal, who knows. But the fit is there.
