Some Financial Particulars on the Complicated Shota Imanaga Deal

Shota Imanaga
Shota Imanaga

Now we know more of the particulars about the deal Shota Imanaga is signing with the Chicago Cubs.

It’s easy to see why it was reported as “complicated.”

Here’s how ESPN’s Jesse Rogers describes the fundamental nature of the contract:

“The Cubs are in agreement with lefty Shota Imanaga on a 4 yr, $53 million deal, sources tell ESPN. After 2 yrs, the team has the option to extend the contract to $80 million over 5 yrs. If they decline, Imanaga has the option to become a free agent. Same after third yr.”

So, let’s break this down, starting with the initial deal: four years and $53 million. A mere $13.25 million AAV is outstanding, though it would adjust upward if he winds up getting that full $80 million over five years.

It sounds like that $53 million is actually the guarantee, by the way, not the earlier-reported $30 million (if Rogers’ phrasing there is correct – update, it is), since Imanaga is the one who can first cut the deal short and take less. So, if he breaks in year one or two, he is guaranteed $53 million total over four years – that’s how you read Rogers’ report, right? That’s what is usually considered the player’s guarantee: the minimum he can get if he wants. And this suggests there weren’t QUITE as serious injury concerns involved as we might’ve earlier worried.

If Imanaga is awesome in those first two years, though, the Cubs can basically tear up the final two years of the deal, and make it like a new three-year deal (we’ll have to see the breakdown of the dollars in each year to know the amount). It’s not just a $27 million team option, mind you – because if the Cubs DON’T do it, then Imanaga can walk away. It’s a unique structure. Not QUITE a team option, not QUITE a player option. It’s both. But not a mutual option. This is kinda fun to think about. I am loving the protections built into this deal for both sides.

So, basically, the possible outcomes look something like …

  • Imanaga really great and healthy in 2024 and 2025? Then he’s probably getting a five-year, $80 million deal, because the Cubs won’t want to lose him to the opt out.
  • Imanaga injured-ish and/or mediocre-ish in 2024 and 2025? He probably just sticks around, and collects his four-year, $53 million deal. In other words, the Cubs wouldn’t go to five years in that situation, and Imanaga also doesn’t opt out.
  • Imanaga pretty healthy and pretty decent in 2024 and 2025, but not an extra three years and $50-ish million decent in the Cubs’ eyes? Then the Cubs probably don’t tack on the years, but Imanaga possibly opts out if he thinks he can do better or simply wants to leave.
  • Of course, performance and health aren’t crystal clear things, and then apparently this whole dance gets done again after year three, so I’m gonna leave it there for now. Complicated indeed. We still don’t even know about escalators, the individual year price tags, and the like. (The posting fee, by the way, is based on the full amount Imanaga actually winds up getting paid, so that can change, too! Looks like it’ll be in the $10 to $13 million range, most likely.)

    More coming soon …

    written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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