NEWSLETTER
The Cubs offseason finally kicked into gear this month, with the signing of free agent starter Shota Imanaga and the trade for reliever Yency Almonte and first baseman Michael Busch. But Jed Hoyer would be the first to tell you the Cubs have a long way to go this winter, with the back end of the bullpen one likely area of focus.
And to that end, today, a familiar name has popped up in connection to the Cubs’ efforts: Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase (via Bruce Levine on 670 The Score).
While the Cubs are reluctant to dole out big money to relievers, it doesn’t mean they aren’t interested in acquiring a star in the role. The Cubs have interest in 25-year-old Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase on the trade market, sources said. Clase has led MLB in saves in each of the past two seasons, compiling 86 saves in that stretch. Clase has a 2.00 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a 4.92 strikeout-to-walk ratio for his career
If the name, “Emmanuel Clase,” sounds familiar, it’s because we first examined him as a potential Cubs trade target back in early December. At the time, a trio of reporters (Sahadev Sharma, Patrick Mooney, and Jeff Passan) loosely connected Clase to the Cubs, who were then also reportedly discussing a trade for Shane Bieber. Privately, I had heard the Cubs were interested in Clase, but the asking price from the Guardians was astronomical.
If that has changed, I don’t know.
Maybe the Cubs stepped up, maybe the Guardians came down, maybe both. Or maybe (perhaps even most likely), the Cubs want some free agent reliever to know that they have alternatives available to them.
I’m really not sure. But I do know (1) the Cubs have the need for a reliever of Clase’s caliber, (2) the Cubs and Guardians had discussed Clase in the past, (3) the Cubs have the prospect capital to trade for pretty much anyone who’s realistically available, and (4) Cubs GM Carter Hawkins came from the Guardians, which could help facilitate a deal.
But instead of re-writing everything we covered last time, here’s a look at Emmanuel Clase as a trade target, from top to bottom:
Emmanuel Clase
Emmanuel Clase, 25, has been one of the best relievers in baseball over this past half-decade, with a career 2.00 ERA (2.44 FIP), 24.9% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate. Like I mentioned, he also comes with a great slider and a stunning 100 MPH cutter.
But there are red flags.
For one, back in 2020, Emmanuel Clase was suspended 80 games after testing positive for a banned PED. He has put together 2.5 ish solid seasons since that suspension, so I don’t necessarily think that puts a cloud over his performance as much as it does his character.
For another, Clase blew a league-leading 12(!) saves last season en route to his worst overall season: 3.22 ERA (2.91 FIP). His strikeout rate dropped considerably and his walk rate climbed (albeit to just 5.3%). In addition, in 2023, Clase allowed his highest average exit velocity (88.4 MPH), barrel rate (5.0%), and hard-hit rate (37.6%).
Now, with all that said, those are obviously still very solid numbers. They’re just not quite as impressive as he was from 2021-2022, when he was easily one of the top-5 relievers in MLB.
But when a reliever’s strikeout rate drops from 28.4% (21% better than average) to 21.2% (9% below average), you gotta see what’s up. So … what’s up?
What Caused the Dropoff?
Emmanuel Clase is effectively a two-pitch pitcher, with his 91.2 MPH slider and 99-100 MPH cutter. And the good news is that neither pitch has lost any velocity whatsoever over the years. The bad news is that both pitches saw dramatic drops in run value and (increases in) xwOBA, according to Statcast …
SLIDER VALUE
CUTTER VALUE:
… and I think it has at least something to do with his pitch movement and spin.
Over the last three seasons, Clase’s slider has begun moving more horizontally while his cutter started moving more vertically. I’m just scouting stat lines at the moment, but perhaps, then, there was less separation between the pitches making it a little easier for batters to connect.
The whiff rate on the slider and the SLG and xSLG on the cutter are two particularly troubling trends:
SLIDER
CUTTER
All together, batters were chasing fewer pitches and whiffing less often. If I had to guess, batters were more easily identifying his slider which made it easier to do damage on the cutter and there was also not enough separation when they did guess wrong. Not a terribly unique story here. Now you just wonder if he can go back to doing what made him special.
But let’s talk about the still existent value.
Emmanuel Clase Value
Warts or not, Emmanuel Clase is still a young reliever with a ton of success, closing experience, and a 100 MPH cutter. That is not something that comes along often. And the Guardians locked him up to a really valuable deal back in 2022.
2022: $1.5M
2023: $1.5M
2024: $2.5M
2025: $4.5M
2026: $6M
2027: $10M club option ($2M buyout)
2028: $10M club option ($2M buyout)
Any acquiring team would get Clase for at least three seasons for a TOTAL commitment of just $15M, and would then get two pretty sweet option years with small buyouts when he’d still be only 29 and 30 years old. That’s a STEAL relative to current relief pricing. Maybe he doesn’t have as much value as he did a year ago, but the Cubs could absolutely, positively use a guy like that on a deal like that and they’d probably have to pay handsomely to get him. The Guardians may need to cut salary, but with Clase’s contract, they have time.
