At each turn, the details on Shota Imanaga’s contract with the Chicago Cubs are revealed to be a bit more complex. It’s no wonder reporters – and their sources, I bet! – were challenged to quickly describe the deal as it was going down last week.
To this point, we knew that it was a baseline four-year, $53 million deal (plus a posting fee just under $10 million), with the sides having to do a little tango after year two to decide whether it was going to become a five-year, $80 million contract, or whether Imanaga was going to opt out (and then the same dance happens again after year three if he stayed and the Cubs didn’t convert the contract after year two).
The Associated Press has now reported a much more robust set of contractual details, and although everything above is still correct, the actual contract is – you guessed it – much more complicated.
Let me first direct you to just check out the AP article if you want the nittiest of gritty, plus a lot more on Imanaga signing with the Cubs (and also some modest contract escalators). There’s not a great way to high-level this stuff, but I’m going to try so that we don’t all get lost in the weeds. Gonna keep things conversational and hope it makes sense. Even if it doesn’t, you don’t really have to worry about any of this for two years.
Let’s dig in …
In his first year, Shota Imanaga is getting $10 million, and in his second year, Imanaga is getting $13 million. That’s all set. That’s happening.
And if nothing at all changes from there, the final two years of Imanaga’s four-year deal would proceed with him getting $30 million over those two seasons. It’s a four-year, $53 million contract. Officially. Nominally.
But things do get funky after those first two years, such that the deal PROBABLY won’t just proceed like a straight $10M, $13M, $15M, $15M contract as it’s set up now.
After that 2025 season, the Cubs have a three-year team option decision to make. That option would give Imanaga salaries of $20 million in 2026, $20 million in 2027, and $17 million in 2028. So the Cubs would be bumping up his salary significantly in 2026 and 2027 in order to (1) tack on that 2028 season to team control, and (2) ensure he doesn’t opt-out. The total contract in that instance would be five years, $80 million. (And the Cubs would owe a little more to Imanaga’s former NPB team, as the posting fee adjusts for the contract.)
OK, so how does that opt-out part work? If the Cubs decline their three-year team option after 2025, then Imanaga gets a $15 million player option for 2026. But he’s under contract through 2027, you say, so how does this make sense?!?! Well, that’s because he’s only KINDA under contract through 2027. I said this thing is complicated! Basically, by declining their three-year team option, the Cubs are converting those two $15 million seasons (2026 and 2027) into player options. That’s how Imanaga can “opt out” after 2025 or after 2026.
Then, let’s say the Cubs didn’t pick up their three-year team option after 2025, and Imanaga decided to stick around, getting $15 million on his now-player-option for 2026. After 2026, the dance looks like this: the Cubs have a two-year team option decision to make. That option would give Imanaga salaries of $24 million in 2027 and $18 million in 2028. Once again, the total contract would wind up being five years, $80 million.
If the Cubs again decline their (this time two-year) option, then Imanaga once again has a $15 million player option for 2027. That would complete the contract, which would have wound up being the baseline four years and $53 million.
Did you follow that? Honestly it took me walking myself through it year to year a couple times to really see how this could/would play out.
Seems like, if Imanaga performs as he’s expected to and stays healthy, this is really going to come down to whether the Cubs have seen enough the first two years to want to make sure he stays three more years at a decent price tag. Because otherwise, Imanaga would hit free agency again. If he’s not healthy or if he really struggles with the adjustment, then this is going to become a four-year, $53 million sunk cost. That seems a fairly unlikely outcome – barring major arm injury, that is – which is kinda wild, since that’s the base contract! An opt out after the first two years, or a five-year, $80 million contract each seem like more likely outcomes.
NEWSLETTER
