NEWSLETTER
At the heart of the Chicago Cubs emerging “core,” you’ll find two homegrown players: Justin Steele and Nico Hoerner. And while both guys enjoy near-unanimous support among Cubs fans for their excellent performance on the field, we may have undersold just how big of a developmental leap last year really was for each.
I’m not sure anyone reading an article on this site will need the reminder, but in case you forgot just how good they were last year …
As it turns out those 2023 performances weren’t just pretty good. They were so good that Justin Steele and Nico Hoerner saw some of the biggest changes to their projected future performance in all of MLB according to ZiPS.
Justin Steele & Nico Hoerner
To put it plainly, before the 2023 season, ZiPS projected 7.7 WAR for Justin Steele in the four seasons from 2024-2027. A perfectly solid, if unspectacular sum. But after 2023, that new ZiPS total is up 10.3 WAR over those four seasons (+2.6 WAR ranks among the top-30 biggest leaps in MLB). And seeing as how he earned 4.9 WAR last season, I wouldn’t bet against the over.
Meanwhile, Nico Hoerner’s leap is even more impressive. Before last season, ZiPS was projecting 10.0 WAR for Nico Hoerner from 2024-2027. But today, ZiPS has him up to to 14.4 WAR, a 4.4 WAR increase year-over-year! Incredible. He was worth 4.7 WAR last season.
It’s also fun to note that Steele’s pitch-to-weak-contact approach works in perfect harmony with Hoerner’s Gold Glove defense at second base.
2024 Projections: Looking forward, Steele’s 2024 ZiPS projections have him finishing 27 starts with a 3.64 ERA and 2.6 WAR. Hoerner’s forecast has him around a league-average bat, but with another 29 stolen bases and continued excellent defense at second base, good enough for 4.0 WAR in 2024. Hoerner is under control through 2026 and Steele through 2027. I’m very happy to have these two guys, in their prime, on the team for multiple years to come.
