NEWSLETTER
MLB RUMORS — Today is Tuesday, June 4, which means we are exactly eight weeks away from the July 2024 MLB Trade Deadline. In the distant past, the MLB rumors would have started to heat up in earnest over the next couple weeks, but that’s been delayed quite a bit since they moved the draft back to All-Star weekend. Front offices simply have most of their focus on the draft.
HOWEVA…
… That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to discuss! And that doesn’t mean trades of significance can’t or won’t happen sooner. In fact, that’s where we’ll start. Because the one team who has made the biggest trade of the year (Marlins, Luis Arraez to the Padres) might already be thinking about another early move.
Another Early Marlins Trade Coming?
At the bottom of his latest set of MLB Notes, Ken Rosenthal dropped an interesting line about the Miami Marlins (bolded emphasis mine):
“After trading Luis Arraez on May 4, no one should be surprised if the Marlins make other deals well before the July 30 trade deadline. Teams, viewing the Arraez move as a signal the Marlins were open for business, began inquiring on the team’s starting pitchers as well as reliever Tanner Scott, according to club sources.”
Tanner Scott is a guy the Cubs have checked on, themselves, and for obvious reasons. Their bullpen was a disaster to start the year, and they’re currently without Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Yency Almonte (none of whom are expected to return this month). And that’s setting aside Keegan Thompson, Colten Brewer, and Daniel Palencia, who are working their way back from injuries of their own.
But Scott is a complicated target. On the one hand, he’s a 29-year-old lefty with a 1.57 ERA, a 54.5% groundball rate, and a 97 MPH fastball. But on the other hand, his 22.8% strikeout rate and 17.8% walk rate do not scream “shut-down closer.”
But that’s probably a little unfair. Or at least, he seems to have dramatically turned things around lately.
Since April 16 (15.1 IP), Scott hasn’t allowed a single run, while striking out batters at a 25.8% clip with a still-high, but-more-manageable 12.9% walk rate. Throw in a minuscule 82.9 MPH average exit velocity and exactly zero barrels and you’ll become a believer again. Scott is a free agent at the end of the year. If the Cubs could find a way to get him sooner than later, he’d help a lot.
Shifting sources, but not topics, a report via USA Today also made note of the Marlins willingness to deal, noting that they likely own the best starter on the trade market, Jesus Luzardo, whom he sees as a match for the Orioles.
Mets Fire Sale Coming
Bob Nightengale believes the Mets will be the epicenter of the 2024 MLB Trade deadline, with a “handful of their prized players expected to be dealt.” Here’s the money quote:
“They haven’t begun yet, but will soon shop first baseman Pete Alonso, DH J.D. Martinez, starters Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana, relievers Adam Ottavino, Jake Diekman and Reed Garrett, infielder Jeff McNeil and outfielders Harrison Bader and Starling Marte.”
The Cubs won’t likely have much of a need for outfielders or starting pitchers, but we know Pete Alonso has been a target in the past. And J.D. Martinez is a theoretical option at DH, if they wanted to push more in for this season.
Alsono isn’t having a monster season overall (121 wRC+), but he does have 13 homers already with just a 19.8% strikeout rate. And the Cubs could use some power.
Meanwhile, J.D. Martinez is rewarding the Mets with really solid offensive results (.278/.331/.476; 134 wRC+), but he’s also striking out 30% of the time and has enjoyed a .375 BABIP. That said, he’s always been a really high-BABIP guy and he’s absolutely obliterating baseballs this season:
And so if you can believe it, his expected batting average (.272) is only six points lower than his actual average, while his expected SLG (.526) is WAY ahead of what he’s actually seen so far (.476 SLG). Might not be a terrible target.
Then again, maybe the Cubs should have just signed him in the offseason, seeing as he settled for a one-year, $12M deal. Oops.
As for the three relievers mentioned (Garrett, Diekman, Ottavino), they all have pretty big red flags, though all three also have strikeout rates north of 30%, which is pretty wild.
One Notable Pete Alonso Suitor
Circling back to Alonso, who has been rumored to the Cubs before – I tend to think it isn’t a lock that he would be a top target for the Cubs, who have a crowded first base picture (Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch, Patrick Wisdom), and may prefer to use their trade assets in other ways. But I wouldn’t say never.
Setting the Cubs aside, Nightengale believes the Mariners could be one of the teams pursuing Alonso, depending on how things work out with their top-10 organizational prospect Tyler Locklear, who was just promoted to Triple-A.
Locklear, 23, hit .291/.401/.532 (155 wRC+) at Double-A before his promotion, and already has seven hits and three walks (plus a HBP) in his first six games at Triple-A. So if he keeps pushing, he might just get a chance in the bigs this season.
