NEWSLETTER
In hindsight, I could’ve held my “Last Place Cubs” post for today, the halfway point in the 2024 season. Maybe would’ve had a little more punch, but it all still plays. Read it if you haven’t (well, if you want to know just how long it’s been since the Cubs have been in last place for this long this deep into the season).
The Chicago Cubs are 37-44 as of today, still in last place, and 11.0 games back of first place in the NL Central, their largest deficit of the season. For context, the Cubs’ largest deficit last season was 9.0 games, and did not come until the final three days of the season.
Worse, perhaps, than the 11.0 games back of the division-leading Brewers, the Cubs trail every other team in the Central. Thus, making up those 11 games on the Brewers would not necessarily mean the Cubs were suddenly in first place – in fact, that’s highly unlikely, given that it would require a big Brewers fall AND a medium fall from each of the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds. All four things happening simultaneous to the Cubs putting together a monster run? I mean, hey, stuff like that happens sometimes, but it is relatively implausible.
Hence the Cubs’ division odds today at FanGraphs sitting at just 3.0%.
How would the Cubs actually play their way into that 3.0%? Well, let’s just pretend the other teams don’t exist for a moment, and look only at the Brewers. Let’s also imagine that the Brewers play just a touch under .500 ball the rest of the way, and finish the season at 88-74. Let’s also say the Cubs eventually get the tiebreaker, and thus have to also get to 88-74 to win the division. That would require the Cubs to go 51-30 the rest of the way, a feat I would describe as considerably more possible if I believed more in the roster. As it stands, a .630 pace – roughly the level the Dodgers and Yankees have played so far this year – just does not strike me as reasonable. (And, again, even doing that might not ACTUALLY be enough!)
Hey, how about the Wild Card, though? Well, I mean, the Cubs are only 5.0 games back of the final spot, but again, the problem is that they trail SEVEN teams for that final spot. You can overcome 5.0 games in a half-season. But passing seven teams in the process? It’s rare, man. Really rare. Especially when you’re gonna hold none of the tiebreakers.
Hence the Cubs’ Wild Card odds today at FanGraphs sitting at just 6.4%.
How would the Cubs actually play their way into that 6.4%? Well, again, doing the same dance minus the tiebreaker (which the Cubs have already lost to the Padres, the team currently in the third Wild Card spot) making all the same assumption, the record the Cubs would have to reach is 84-78. That would require the Cubs to go 47-34 the rest of the way, or a much more achievable .580 winning percentage. That’s why the playoff odds there are nearly double.
BUT, in this instance, one of the assumptions we made – that no other team would also get really hot and stay ahead of the Cubs – is much less reasonable, because we’re talking about the Cubs leaping seven teams, rather than just four. So even if you believed this roster was likely to play at a .580 clip the rest of the way (a touch better than the Braves have played so far this year), that’s far from a guarantee to actually be enough. And also, I don’t believe this roster plays at a .580 clip the rest of the way without significant additions, and I don’t see that happening. So.
One last thing to check on to inform this discussion: have the Cubs earned their 37-44 record? I mean, if they actually had played a lot BETTER than their record, then maybe you would feel comfortable projecting a much better winning percentage in the second half.
… sorry! Nope! Both the Pythagorean standings and the Base Runs standings – measures of underlying performance, trying to erase some of the flukiness – would have the Cubs at just 38-43.
A game better, sure, but still pretty bad! And if that’s the “true talent” of this roster, there aren’t enough guys coming back from injuries to make up that difference organically. So you’d have to be talking about LOTS of SIGNIFICANT additions in July. I don’t see much from this team that would justify those kinds of deals.
So, then, we’re left with luck. The Cubs could simply get really lucky, and win a crapload of extra games in the second half that maybe they didn’t quite “deserve” to win. Again, sometimes things like that happen. Do you let your midseason strategy get dictated by the possibility of cosmic generosity, though?
This is all to say, as we sit here at the midway point of this 2024 Cubs season, I don’t see a realistic path to competing for a playoff spot in the second half without some shocking roster change(s), and/or without a tremendous amount of good luck (ideally over the next month so as to spur buying that can then actually raise the true talent level of the roster, making it less dependent on luck in August and September).
Maybe the Cubs will get that luck. Maybe they’ll make those changes. Me? I’m not counting on it, and I expect the second half of the season to look a lot like the first half: disappointing, frustrating, and concerning.
