If you’re looking for something to read today, consider checking out Matthew Trueblood’s latest at North Side Baseball. In his sober look at the Cubs, underscored by a depressing contrast to the current status of the Brewers, Trueblood pretty much nails what must come next for this team as the calendar flips to July, which in turn sets up something I want to discuss today.
Here’s a little bit from Trueblood:
“It would be excruciating for the Cubs’ decision-makers to have to lean into another rebuild, but they would be foolish not to sell–and sell aggressively–before this month ends. This would require a lot of proactivity and cleverness, and it’s not clear that Hoyer is any more capable of that than he was of building a winning team. His only successful sell trades were, ultimately, reactive, and despite the ugly standings, these would have to be proactive.”
Yup.
Seven games below .500, five games out of a playoff spot (behind six teams), and 11 games out of first place in the NL Central. The Cubs simply have no choice but to start planning to sell at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline. It’s just what has to happen.
Unfortunately, unlike some of the other selling deadlines we’ve covered in the past, this team wasn’t really built to sell. The Cubs didn’t come into the season knowing they’d be bad – or even that there was a pretty good chance of it – loading up on one-year deals for guys they can flip at the deadline. Pretty much everyone even remotely tradable is under contract or control beyond this season. And the bullpen, where you can normally always find relievers to deal, is an absolute mess with hardly a single obvious tradable piece.
Buuuuuuut I don’t think it has to play out that way. Like Trueblood, I think the Cubs could squeeze some tradable value out of this roster. It’ll just be tough. Because when you go one-by-one, most guys are either not obvious trade candidates or carry pretty big asterisks next to their potential value.
MLB Trade Deadline – Cubs Tradability
(1B) Michael Busch – The Cubs just traded for Michael Busch this offseason and he’s basically their best hitter. He’s young, he plays a position of need, he’s left-handed, he’s got power, and he’s under team control through 2029. He’s not “untouchable,” because no one should be. But it’s difficult to imagine the Cubs moving him right now.
(2B) Nico Hoerner – Although Hoerner is just over a year out from signing an extension with the Cubs, I think he’s actually a pretty solid trade candidate in a world where the Cubs really try to sell. He plays Gold Glove defense at second base, he can cover short, he’s a roughly league-average bat, he steals bases, etc. You know who Nico Hoerner is. With James Triantos, Matt Shaw, Michael Busch, and even Christopher Morel all theoretically capable of playing second base now or in the near future, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs listen to offers for Hoerner (indeed, speculation has already begun). He’s under control for 2.5 more years, earning $11.5M next year and $12M in 2026.
(SS) Dansby Swanson – He’s too pricey long-term and not playing well enough to be a realistic trade candidate.
(3B) Christopher Morel – He was in high-demand over the offseason, but I really don’t see the Cubs trading him right now with his value arguably lower than ever. The combination of a high remaining upside, long-term/cheap control, terrible results (despite promise under the hood), and no real defensive position make moving Morel right now a bad idea.
(LF) Ian Happ – Happ, 29, is having one of his typically solid seasons (121 wRC+, 1.5 WAR, 11 HRs) and has been particularly hot for over six weeks now (153 wRC+, 10 HRs). But he has a no-trade clause after a recent extension. He’s also more expensive than an arbitration-level player, making $20M this year and next and then $18M in 2026. I think he has some value (especially if the Cubs ate some money), and the Cubs do have outfield prospects to try soon, but the contract and the no-trade clause are a couple of tough hurdles to overcome.
(CF) Pete Crow-Armstrong – I just don’t think the Cubs are going to trade PCA. The offensive production hasn’t materialized yet, but we’ve all seen what he can do in center field and on the bases. He’s also only 22 years old. Absent some unforeseen deal, he’s not going anywhere. Nor should he.
(CF II) Cody Bellinger – The Cubs would probably be happy to move Bellinger, and he’s reportedly already being targeted by the Yankees (who wanted him last season) and maybe also the Rangers(?). However, his offensive slide, lack of power, and the player options the next two seasons make it a tough sell. Then again, he’s a big name, he plays all three outfield spots well, he can fill in at first base, and he’s already drawing interest. I just don’t want to short-sell how big of a hurdle the player options are in terms of getting meaningful value back in a trade.
(RF) Seiya Suzuki – By the numbers, Suzuki’s season has been fine (122 wRC+, 10 HRs) — and he’s been even better since May 23 (136 wRC+). But I just don’t really see the Cubs getting appropriate value for him in any deal because of the streakiness and poor defense and injury history. Plus, I think the Cubs are trying to build and maintain a strong connection to the NPB (for when additional Japanese stars are made available). That’s not just about not having Suzuki around, mind you. It’s also about maintaining goodwill and a good reputation with those players/that league. Oh, also Suzuki isn’t cheap ($20M this season, $18M in 2025 and again in 2026). And, of course, he has a no-trade clause. I don’t see a Suzuki trade as a non-starter, I just struggle to envision a trade for him realistically coming together this month.
(C) Tomas Nido and Miguel Amaya – Mid-season catcher trades are rare. And that’s for guys that are good. Don’t count on a Nido or Amaya trade. Not going to happen. Next to nothing to be gained.
(Bench) David Bote, Miles Mastrobuoni (Nick Madrigal), Patrick Wisdom, Mike Tauchman – If he were healthy, Mike Tauchman might have some real trade value. Nothing substantial, but not zero. Patrick Wisdom’s power from the right side also isn’t entirely worthless. So you can include these guys in the group of “Sure, they’re available, but they’re probably not all that attractive.” The rest? I mean, sure, but whatever.
(Bullpen) Anyone could be traded, but no one is a standout. Not sure there will be value here. The Cubs really need someone to get red-hot over the next month, preferably Hector Neris or Mark Leiter Jr. to take advantage of a relief trade even for a modest return. But truly, I could see anyone being dealt if the right offer came along. No reason to be precious here, and relievers are always in demand. I just wish the Cubs had some better ones to deal.
(SP) Justin Steele – Steele might be the Cubs’ most marketable asset. Everyone always wants starting pitching, and Steele has been very good for a while now. He’s also young, under control, and pitching well at the moment. I desperately hope the Cubs do NOT trade Steele, though, because that would be a pretty bad sign for next season, depending on the return. Unlike Hoerner’s spot, where prospects/other big leaguers are ready to fill in, replacing Steele would be much tougher. Steele is under team control through 2027 via arbitration.
(SP) Shota Imanaga – Shota is probably in demand, but I really don’t see the Cubs trading a Japanese star pitcher (with a complicated contract) they just signed six months ago. It’s like my Suzuki argument above, but to an even greater degree.
(SP) Jameson Taillon – I think the Cubs would be happy to move Jameson Taillon, who’s actually having a pretty solid season overall: 3.03 ERA over 13 starts and 74.1 IP. He’s not cheap ($17M AAV and under control through 2026), but if there’s a starter-needy team out there looking for someone to stabilize the back of their rotation, Taillon isn’t a bad target.
(SP) Kyle Hendricks – Hendricks just got 10-5 no trade rights and despite a brief little rebound is not pitching well this season. If he goes on a tear from here until the deadline, sure, maybe he’d be dealt. But I just don’t see it playing out that way.
(SPs) Javier Assad and Ben Brown are unlikely to be traded. The Cubs shouldn’t move cheap, effective, probably underrated, controllable big league starters at the deadline.
So … when we say “this team wasn’t built to sell,” hopefully now you can see what we mean. Unless you’re willing to move Justin Steele, there just aren’t a lot of obvious and easily movable/exciting assets. Everyone either has long-term contracts, no-trade clauses, or a bad first-half on their sheet. And there are no obviously tradable relievers, the easiest asset to move at the deadline.
At the end of the day, though, there isn’t nothing. Ian Happ, Jameson Taillon, Nico Hoerner, Mike Tauchman, and pick-a-reliever represent one tradable asset from each position class. Jed Hoyer will just have to get creative.
NEWSLETTER
