Wesneski and the Dingers, Swanson, Imanaga, Brewers, Robert, and Other Cubs Bullets

The Wife does this very nice thing where she will randomly get stickers for people. Just a sweet little way to communicate some love or a laugh. Today I accidentally stole one that was intended for a friend but that I thought was for me. In my defense, it was sandwiched in my wallet! But I was supposed to take it to the friend, not immediately stick it to my laptop. Sorry, dear …

  • Through his first 29.1 innings this year, Hayden Wesneski hadn’t given up a home run. As you’d expect, his numbers looked crazy good, even if you would still project SOME homers to arrive. What you might not have projected is that he would go on to allow 10(!) homers over his next 20.2 innings, a number that is exactly as jarring as it has been to see it play out on the mound. Given that he’s allowed a 23.1% barrel rate in that time, it’s not really a surprise that so many balls in play have left the park. And just in case you wondered whether there was some ballpark-related flukiness in it, there is not: based on the actual fly balls he’s given up, Statcast would expect him to have allowed closer to 11 homers.
  • So what exactly is going on? It’s one of those How-Was-The-Play-Mrs.-Lincoln situations to say it, but other than the homers, he’s pitched pretty well (walks starting to tick up, though). Mostly it’s the homers. And homers are really, really bad. Is this flukey? Is there signal? Maybe if it weren’t for the monster home run rate last year I could buy that this is just a fluke, but since the homers were a really extreme issue last season for Wesneski, I’m thinking there’s something about his pitch mix and location that are allowing guys to really sit on the average-ish four-seam fastball. This will probably take a deeper dive to figure out, but I’ll note that during the earlier very good stretch, his four-seam fastball was grading out very well by run values. And during this horrific stretch, it’s grading out terribly. Did something happen? To his delivery? His grip? I’m not seeing anything SUPER glaring in the pitch-release data. Maybe it’s just as simple as hitters really started spitting on the slider (out of zone swing rates have gone way down), and just waiting for a juicy four-seamer at the belt?
  • Oh, and I should definitely point out one super glaring traditional thing: he’s not getting ahead in counts. His first strike rate went from 71.2% during the good stretch to just 55.4% during the bad stretch. Starting half of your counts 1-0 is a pretty great way to ALLOW hitters to sit back and wait for the pitch they want.
  • More from Craig Counsell on Wesneski:
  • Until and unless one of Javier Assad, Ben Brown, or Jordan Wicks returns soon from the Injured List, though, I tentatively expect Wesneski to keep getting starts.
  • This is why Dansby Swanson’s xwOBA is his lowest since 2018 despite a strong hard hit rate and average exit velo – almost all of his hardest contact is turning into ground outs:
  • Swanson’s 52.7% groundball rate is not only BY FAR the highest of his career, it is the 6th highest in baseball.
  • In a new projection analysis at FanGraphs, Shōta Imanaga is one of the pitchers with biggest bump in projected 2025-2029 WAR after his start this season (+3.3 WAR total). No Cubs pitchers or prospects show up on the list of the biggest decliners, so that’s good. Brewers pitching prospects Jacob Misiorowski and DL Hall do appear on that latter list, though, for what that’s worth.
  • A great story on the long, long recovery path for Ethan Roberts:
  • Hot streak incoming for Kevin Alcántara? He was heating up before a brief shoulder injury in June, and he might be picking right back up where he left off:
  • Wonder if they have some kind of secret sauce, or if this is just a fluke:
  • Not that this one was skill, lol:
  • Kyle Schwarber, still appreciated:
  • Another huge game for former Cubs pitching prospect DJ Herz, who has alternated some monster outings with some really rough ones:
  • This is the flip side of the “trade all the prospects!” commentary, by the way. Trading prospects for value at the right times is a good idea in my book, but you better be prepared to see them sometimes flourish elsewhere. (And the Cubs better be better than average at evaluating their own prospects.)
  • There was almost no way he was going to make the play at the plate, but what the heck is this:
  • What on earth was he doing? Did he not know the situation? That would arguably be better than simply deciding not to even try (though neither explanation is good!). So, yeah, unless there’s an injury being concealed, that’s a really, really bad look.
  • Fun is fun:
  • written by

    Brett Taylor is the Lead Cubs Writer at Bleacher Nation, and you can find him on Twitter at @BleacherNation and on LinkedIn here. Brett is also the founder of Bleacher Nation, which opened up shop in 2008 as an independent blog about the Chicago Cubs. Later growing to incorporate coverage of other Chicago sports, Bleacher Nation is now one of the largest regional sports blogs on the web.

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