NEWSLETTER
There is a video clip floating around today of Steve Phillips, opining on Cody Bellinger’s trade value on MLB Network.
If you haven’t seen it:
Primarily, I will say that I agree that a number of teams would probably like to have Cody Bellinger on their roster for August, September, and October. Let’s say he continues to get on track offensively, and there are no fundamental worries among teams that his bat will fall back off a cliff. He plays good defense in center and at first base, and we could project something like a 115 wRC+ from him the rest of the way. That’s a very valuable player.
Yet I don’t think he would net the Cubs much in trade.
Last year at this time, we were having this same conversation about Marcus Stroman. Good player, performing well, could be an impact player for a trade partner … but wouldn’t return much in trade. Why? Because of the player opt-out/option tacked onto his contract:
“Take Marcus Stroman, for example. The Cubs’ co-ace is probably the best rental starting pitcher available on the market (if the Cubs sell). His value in trade, therefore, should be quite high. But think about it from the acquiring team’s perspective: if you acquire Stroman and he’s great for you, then he opts out of his 2024 contract year ($21 million) and hits free agency. All you got was a rental. As expected. BUT IF HE GETS SERIOUSLY HURT in August or September, and he if he DOESN’T want to hit free agency, you just got yourself on the hook for a $21 million sunk cost in 2024. And you paid a big prospect price for the privilege!
Wouldn’t that risk – however slight – impact how much you would be willing to give up in trade this month? It’s going to ding the price tag on Stroman (unless the Cubs bought insurance for the other team or something weird like that (which, yeah, do that if you can)).”
That is all true this year for Cody Bellinger, who can opt out of his deal at the end of the season if he’s doing well, or he can stick around for $30 million in 2025, and then also has the choice of sticking around in 2026 for another $20 million. Thus, an acquiring team is not only receiving a rental Cody in the deal, it is also receiving ONLY THE DOWNSIDE of the next two years if he were to stink or get hurt. They get NONE OF THE UPSIDE of those following two seasons.
Does that mean Bellinger has zero trade value or is completely untradable? Not necessarily. There could be teams out there that see the risk as worth it for the impact in a competitive 2024 season. There could be teams that are willing to take the risk if the Cubs eat some salary, or offer to eat some salary in the event that Bellinger doesn’t opt out. I just think the return would be much, much, much less than you might be imagining for a “Bellinger rental.” Sadly, much of the return might simply be “get the 2025 and 2026 risk off the books.” Gross, but real.
We’ll see what happens. Maybe the market for a guy like Bellinger will grow to such a monstrous and robust level by late-July that the Cubs can nevertheless extract a solid prospect in a trade. I am not saying it’s impossible. It would just take a really desperate contender for whom Bellinger represents an enormous upgrade (and for whom Bellinger would be a good fit in 2025 if he doesn’t opt out, but is still seen as useful).
